Montenovo Laura, Jiang Xuan, Lozano-Rojas Felipe, Schmutte Ian, Simon Kosali, Weinberg Bruce A, Wing Coady
O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA.
Department of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
Demography. 2022 Jun 1;59(3):827-855. doi: 10.1215/00703370-9961471.
This study examines the sociodemographic divide in early labor market responses to the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic and associated policies, benchmarked against two previous recessions. Monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) data show greater declines in employment in April and May 2020 (relative to February) for Hispanic individuals, younger workers, and those with a high school diploma or some college. Between April and May, the demographic subgroups considered regained some employment. Reemployment in May was broadly proportional to the employment drop that occurred through April, except for Black individuals, who experienced a smaller rebound. Compared to the 2001 recession and the Great Recession, employment losses in the early COVID-19 recession were smaller for groups with low or high (vs. medium) education. We show that job loss was greater in occupations that require more interpersonal contact and that cannot be performed remotely, and that pre-COVID-19 sorting of workers into occupations and industries along demographic lines can explain a sizable portion of the demographic gaps in new unemployment. For example, while women suffered more job losses than men, their disproportionate pre-epidemic sorting into occupations compatible with remote work shielded them from even larger employment losses. However, substantial gaps in employment losses across groups cannot be explained by socioeconomic differences. We consider policy lessons and future research needs regarding the early labor market implications of the COVID-19 crisis.
本研究考察了美国劳动力市场对新冠疫情及相关政策早期反应中的社会人口差异，并与前两次衰退进行了对比。月度当前人口调查（CPS）数据显示，2020年4月和5月（相对于2月），西班牙裔、年轻工人以及高中文凭或有一些大学学历的人就业下降幅度更大。在4月至5月期间，所考虑的人口亚群体恢复了一些就业。5月的再就业情况与截至4月的就业下降情况大致成比例，但黑人除外，他们的反弹较小。与2001年衰退和大衰退相比，在新冠疫情早期衰退中，低学历或高学历（相对于中等学历）群体的就业损失较小。我们表明，在需要更多人际接触且无法远程完成的职业中，失业情况更为严重，并且在新冠疫情之前，工人按人口特征进入职业和行业的情况可以解释新失业人口中相当一部分的人口差异。例如，虽然女性失业人数比男性多，但她们在疫情前不成比例地进入了适合远程工作的职业，这使她们避免了更大的就业损失。然而，各群体间就业损失的巨大差异无法用社会经济差异来解释。我们考虑了关于新冠疫情危机对劳动力市场早期影响的政策教训和未来研究需求。
