Casarico Alessandra, Lattanzio Salvatore
Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.
CESIfo, Munich, Germany.
J Econ Inequal. 2022;20(3):537-558. doi: 10.1007/s10888-021-09522-6. Epub 2022 Mar 23.
We investigate the short-term effects of COVID-19 on labor market flows and how they are mediated by labor market policy. Using Italian administrative data on a sample of active contracts between 2009 and the second quarter of 2020, we show that, before the pandemic, a higher share of female compared to male, young compared to old and low educated compared to high educated workers is employed in non-essential activities. When we look at the change in hirings and separations, from the 9th week of 2020 - the time when first cases and deaths due to COVID-19 were recorded -, we find a pronounced drop in hirings and endings of fixed-term contracts. Layoffs and quits increase after the 9th week, and then decline significantly, reflecting the effects of government intervention. The lifting of the lockdown triggers a slow recovery of labor market flows. Young workers, those on temporary contracts, low-educated workers, those employed in the South and those with no opportunities of working from home experience a greater decline in separation probability, indicating that government policy partly protected them from the labor market impact of the recession. The decline in the separation probability for women is lower than that for men.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10888-021-09522-610.1007/s10888-021-09522-6.
我们研究了新冠疫情对劳动力市场流动的短期影响，以及劳动力市场政策如何对其产生调节作用。利用2009年至2020年第二季度意大利关于有效合同样本的行政数据，我们发现，在疫情之前，与男性相比，女性、与年长者相比年轻人以及与高学历者相比低学历者在非必要活动中的就业比例更高。当我们观察2020年第9周（即首次记录到新冠疫情病例和死亡的时间）以来招聘和离职的变化时，我们发现定期合同的招聘和终止数量显著下降。第9周之后裁员和辞职人数增加，然后大幅下降，这反映了政府干预的影响。封锁措施的解除引发了劳动力市场流动的缓慢复苏。年轻工人、临时合同工、低学历工人、南部地区就业者以及那些没有在家工作机会的人离职概率下降幅度更大，这表明政府政策在一定程度上保护了他们免受衰退对劳动力市场的影响。女性离职概率的下降幅度低于男性。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10888-021-09522-6 10.1007/s10888-021-09522-6获取的补充材料。
