Université Grenoble Alpes, TIMC-IMAG/MAGE, Grenoble 38000, France.
Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Math Biosci Eng. 2022 Apr 1;19(6):5699-5716. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022266.
The rapid spread of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants combined with slowing pace of vaccination in Fall 2021 created uncertainty around the future trajectory of the epidemic in King County, Washington, USA. We analyzed the benefits of offering vaccination to children ages 5-11 and expanding the overall vaccination coverage using mathematical modeling. We adapted a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, calibrated to data from King County, Washington, to simulate scenarios of vaccinating children aged 5-11 with different starting dates and different proportions of physical interactions (PPI) in schools being restored. Dynamic social distancing was implemented in response to changes in weekly hospitalizations. Reduction of hospitalizations and estimated time under additional social distancing measures are reported over the 2021-2022 school year. In the scenario with 85% vaccination coverage of 12+ year-olds, offering early vaccination to children aged 5-11 with 75% PPI was predicted to prevent 756 (median, IQR 301-1434) hospitalizations cutting youth hospitalizations in half compared to no vaccination and largely reducing the need for additional social distancing measures over the school year. If, in addition, 90% overall vaccination coverage was reached, 60% of remaining hospitalizations would be averted and the need for increased social distancing would almost certainly be avoided. Our work suggests that uninterrupted in-person schooling in King County was partly possible because reasonable precaution measures were taken at schools to reduce infectious contacts. Rapid vaccination of all school-aged children provides meaningful reduction of the COVID-19 health burden over this school year but only if implemented early. It remains critical to vaccinate as many people as possible to limit the morbidity and mortality associated with future epidemic waves.
高度传染性的 SARS-CoV-2 变异株迅速传播，加上 2021 年秋季疫苗接种速度放缓，这使得美国华盛顿金县未来的疫情轨迹充满了不确定性。我们使用数学模型分析了为 5-11 岁儿童接种疫苗和提高整体疫苗接种率的好处。我们改编了一个 SARS-CoV-2 传播的数学模型，该模型使用华盛顿金县的数据进行了校准，以模拟为 5-11 岁儿童接种疫苗的不同起始日期和学校恢复不同比例的身体接触（PPI）的情况。动态社会疏离措施根据每周住院人数的变化而实施。报告了 2021-2022 学年期间因额外社会疏离措施而减少的住院人数和估计时间。在 12 岁以上人群 85%疫苗接种覆盖率的情况下，预测对 5-11 岁儿童进行早期疫苗接种，同时恢复 75%的 PPI，将预防 756 例（中位数，IQR301-1434）住院，与不接种疫苗相比，青少年住院人数减少一半，并在整个学年内大大减少对额外社会疏离措施的需求。如果在此基础上达到 90%的总体疫苗接种覆盖率，将避免 60%的剩余住院人数，几乎可以肯定避免增加社会疏离措施的需要。我们的工作表明，金县能够部分实现不间断的面对面教学，部分原因是学校采取了合理的预防措施来减少感染接触。在本学年内，为所有学龄儿童快速接种疫苗可显著降低 COVID-19 的健康负担，但前提是要尽早实施。尽可能为更多人接种疫苗以限制未来疫情波带来的发病率和死亡率仍然至关重要。
