Parra René, Saud Claudia, Espinoza Claudia
Instituto de Simulación Computacional (ISC-USFQ), Colegio de Ciencias e Ingenierías, Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ, Quito 170901, Ecuador.
Red de Monitoreo de Calidad del Aire de Cuenca, Empresa Pública de Movilidad, Tránsito y Transporte de Cuenca, EMOV EP, Cuenca 010206, Ecuador.
Toxics. 2022 May 19;10(5):264. doi: 10.3390/toxics10050264.
Fine particulate matter (PM) is dangerous to human health. At midnight on 31 December, in Ecuadorian cities, people burn puppets and fireworks, emitting high amounts of PM. On 1 January 2022, concentrations between 27.3 and 40.6 µg m (maximum mean over 24 h) were measured in Cuenca, an Andean city located in southern Ecuador; these are higher than 15 µg m, the current World Health Organization guideline. We estimated the corresponding PM emissions and used them as an input to the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem 3.2) model to simulate the change in PM concentrations, assuming these emissions started at 18:00 LT or 21:00 LT on 31 December 2021. On average, PM concentrations decreased by 51.4% and 33.2%. Similar modeling exercises were completed for 2016 to 2021, providing mean decreases between 21.4% and 61.0% if emissions started at 18:00 LT. Lower mean reductions, between 2.3% and 40.7%, or even local increases, were computed for emissions beginning at 21:00 LT. Reductions occurred through better atmospheric conditions to disperse PM compared to midnight. Advancing the burning time can help reduce the health effects of PM emissions on 31 December.
细颗粒物（PM）对人类健康有害。12月31日午夜，在厄瓜多尔的城市中，人们焚烧木偶和烟花，排放大量细颗粒物。2022年1月1日，在位于厄瓜多尔南部的安第斯城市昆卡，测量到的浓度在27.3至40.6微克/立方米之间（24小时最大平均值）；这些浓度高于世界卫生组织目前15微克/立方米的指导标准。我们估算了相应的细颗粒物排放量，并将其作为输入数据，用于化学气象研究与预报（WRF-Chem 3.2）模型，以模拟细颗粒物浓度的变化，假设这些排放于2021年12月31日当地时间18:00或21:00开始。平均而言，细颗粒物浓度分别下降了51.4%和33.2%。针对2016年至2021年进行了类似的建模分析，如果排放于当地时间18:00开始，平均降幅在21.4%至61.0%之间。如果排放于当地时间21:00开始，计算得出的平均降幅较低，在2.3%至40.7%之间，甚至出现了局部浓度上升的情况。与午夜相比，由于大气条件改善有助于细颗粒物扩散，从而实现了浓度降低。提前燃烧时间有助于减轻12月31日细颗粒物排放对健康的影响。
