Knific Tanja, Ocepek Matjaž, Kirbiš Andrej, Krt Branko, Prezelj Jasna, Gethmann Jörn M
Institute of Food Safety, Feed and Environment, Veterinary Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Gerbičeva ulica 60, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology, Veterinary Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Gerbičeva ulica 60, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Foods. 2022 May 18;11(10):1472. doi: 10.3390/foods11101472.
This study aimed to assess the risk of exposure to subsp. (MAP) via milk for the Slovenian consumer. MAP is suspected to be associated with several diseases in humans, therefore the risk of exposure should be better understood. The primary source of MAP for humans is thought to be cattle, in which MAP causes paratuberculosis or Johne's disease. We developed a stochastic quantitative risk assessment model using Monte Carlo simulations. Considering the assumptions and uncertainties, we estimated the overall risk of exposure to MAP via milk to be low. For people consuming raw milk from MAP positive farms, the risk was high. On-farm pasteurisation reduced the risk considerably, but not completely. The risk of exposure via pasteurised retail milk was most likely insignificant. However, with a higher paratuberculosis prevalence the risk would also increase. Given the popularity of raw milk vending machines and homemade dairy products, this risk should not be ignored. To reduce the risk, consumers should heat raw milk before consumption. To prevent a potential public health scare and safeguard farmers' livelihoods, a reduction in paratuberculosis prevalence should be sought. Our results show that culling clinically infected cows was insufficient to reduce milk contamination with MAP.
本研究旨在评估斯洛文尼亚消费者通过牛奶接触副结核分枝杆菌亚种（MAP）的风险。MAP被怀疑与人类的多种疾病有关，因此应更好地了解接触风险。人类接触MAP的主要来源被认为是牛，MAP会在牛身上引发副结核病或约内氏病。我们使用蒙特卡洛模拟开发了一个随机定量风险评估模型。考虑到各种假设和不确定性，我们估计通过牛奶接触MAP的总体风险较低。对于饮用来自MAP呈阳性农场的生牛奶的人群，风险较高。农场内巴氏杀菌可大幅降低风险，但不能完全消除。通过巴氏杀菌的零售牛奶接触MAP的风险很可能微不足道。然而，随着副结核病患病率的升高，风险也会增加。鉴于生牛奶自动售货机和自制乳制品很受欢迎，这种风险不应被忽视。为降低风险，消费者应在饮用前加热生牛奶。为防止潜在的公共卫生恐慌并保障农民生计，应努力降低副结核病的患病率。我们的结果表明，扑杀临床感染的奶牛不足以减少牛奶中MAP的污染。
