Morrison Geoffrey Stewart
Forensic Data Science Laboratory, Aston University, Birmingham, UK.
Forensic Evaluation Ltd, Birmingham, UK.
Forensic Sci Int Synerg. 2022 May 18;5:100270. doi: 10.1016/j.fsisyn.2022.100270. eCollection 2022.
Widespread practice across the majority of branches of forensic science uses analytical methods based on human perception, and interpretive methods based on subjective judgement. These methods are non-transparent and are susceptible to cognitive bias, interpretation is often logically flawed, and forensic-evaluation systems are often not empirically validated. I describe a paradigm shift in which existing methods are replaced by methods based on relevant data, quantitative measurements, and statistical models; methods that are transparent and reproducible, are intrinsically resistant to cognitive bias, use the logically correct framework for interpretation of evidence (the likelihood-ratio framework), and are empirically validated under casework conditions.
大多数法医学分支的广泛实践使用基于人类感知的分析方法和基于主观判断的解释方法。这些方法不透明，容易受到认知偏差的影响，解释往往存在逻辑缺陷，而且法医学评估系统通常未经实证验证。我描述了一种范式转变，即现有方法被基于相关数据、定量测量和统计模型的方法所取代；这些方法透明且可重复，本质上能抵御认知偏差，使用逻辑正确的证据解释框架（似然比框架），并在实际案件条件下经过实证验证。
