Nguyen Tri K, Hoang Nam H, Currie Graham, Vu Hai L
Monash Institute of Transport Studies, Melbourne, Australia.
Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 2022 Jul;161:186-199. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.05.002. Epub 2022 May 24.
Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) and its variants are still spreading rapidly with deadly consequences and profound impacts on the global health and world economy. Without a suitable vaccine, mobility restriction has been the most effective method so far to prevent its spreading and avoid overwhelming the heath system of the affected country. The compartmental model SIR (or Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) is the most popular mathematical model used to predict the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to plan the control actions and mobility restrictions against its spreading. A major limitation of this model in relation to modeling the spreading of COVID-19, and the mobility limitation strategy, is that the SIR model does not include mobility or take into account changes in mobility within its structure. This paper develops and tests a new hybrid SIR model; SIR-M which is integrated with an urban activity travel model to explore how it might improve the prediction of pandemic course and the testing of mobility limitation strategies in managing virus spread. The paper describes the enhanced methodology and tests a range of mobility limitation strategies on virus spread outcomes. Implications for policy and research futures are suggested.
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）及其变种仍在迅速传播，造成致命后果，并对全球健康和世界经济产生深远影响。在没有合适疫苗的情况下，行动限制是迄今为止防止其传播和避免使受影响国家的卫生系统不堪重负的最有效方法。分区模型SIR（即易感者、感染者和康复者）是用于预测COVID-19大流行进程，以便规划针对其传播的控制行动和行动限制的最流行数学模型。该模型在模拟COVID-19传播及行动限制策略方面的一个主要局限性在于，SIR模型不包括行动情况，也未在其结构中考虑行动的变化。本文开发并测试了一种新的混合SIR模型；SIR-M，它与城市活动出行模型相结合，以探索其如何改进对大流行进程的预测以及对管理病毒传播的行动限制策略的测试。本文描述了增强后的方法，并测试了一系列行动限制策略对病毒传播结果的影响。文中还提出了对政策和未来研究的启示。
