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1970 年至 2019 年东欧与恐怖主义相关袭击的流行病学分析。

An Epidemiological Analysis of Terrorism-Related Attacks in Eastern Europe from 1970 to 2019.

机构信息

Senior Fellow, BIDMC Disaster Medicine Fellowship, Department of Emergency Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MassachusettsUSA.

Emergency Physician, Department of Emergency Medicine, VieCuri Medical Center, Venlo, the Netherlands.

出版信息

Prehosp Disaster Med. 2022 Aug;37(4):468-473. doi: 10.1017/S1049023X2200084X. Epub 2022 Jun 2.

DOI:10.1017/S1049023X2200084X
PMID:35650676
Abstract

INTRODUCTION

Over the past five decades, Eastern Europe has seen relatively little in terms of terrorist attacks. The recent escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has, however, placed a new spotlight on the region, and new questions and concerns around war, conflict, insurgency, and terrorism are being posed. The Russian invasion and extensive combat operations, the largest in Europe since World War II, are occurring across Ukraine where there are 15 active nuclear reactors, not including the Chernobyl site, that are vulnerable to attack or sabotage. In addition, Eastern Europe has been heavily affected by COVID-19, exposing broad vulnerabilities in an otherwise fragile health care system. This raises concerns over the ability of Eastern European health care institutions to absorb surge and manage terrorist attacks or acts of violent extremism. This study provides an epidemiological description of all terrorism-related fatalities and injuries in Eastern Europe sustained from 1970 - 2019.

METHOD

Data collection was performed using a retrospective database search through the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). The GTD was searched using the internal database functions for all terrorism events which occurred in Eastern Europe from January 1, 1970 - December 31, 2019. Years 2020 and 2021 were not yet available at the time of this study. Primary weapon type, country where the incident occurred, and number of deaths and injured were collated. Results were exported into an Excel spreadsheet (Microsoft Corp.; Redmond, Washington USA) for analysis.

RESULTS

There were 3,901 terrorism-related events in Eastern Europe between the years 1970 and 2019, inclusive. In total, the attacks resulted in 5,391 deaths and 9,538 persons injured. Explosives were the most commonly used weapon type in 59.2% of all attacks in the region, followed by firearms in 27.6%.

CONCLUSION

From 1970 through 2019, a total of 3,901 terrorist attacks occurred in Eastern Europe, inflicting 5,391 deaths and 9,538 injuries. Of those, 72.3% occurred in Russia and Ukraine. Terrorist attacks sharply declined since the peak in 2014, but there is an overall uptrend in attacks since the 1970s.

摘要

简介

在过去的五十年里,东欧几乎没有发生过恐怖袭击事件。然而,最近俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突的升级使该地区成为关注焦点,人们对战争、冲突、叛乱和恐怖主义提出了新的问题和担忧。俄罗斯的入侵和广泛的作战行动是自第二次世界大战以来欧洲最大规模的一次,这些行动正在乌克兰进行,而乌克兰有 15 座现役核反应堆,其中不包括切尔诺贝利核电站,这些反应堆容易受到攻击或破坏。此外,东欧受到 COVID-19 的严重影响,暴露出原本脆弱的医疗体系存在广泛的脆弱性。这让人担心东欧医疗机构是否有能力应对恐怖袭击或暴力极端主义行为的激增。本研究提供了 1970 年至 2019 年东欧所有与恐怖主义相关的死亡和受伤人员的流行病学描述。

方法

使用通过全球恐怖主义数据库(GTD)进行的回顾性数据库搜索来收集数据。通过 GTD 的内部数据库功能,对 1970 年 1 月 1 日至 2019 年 12 月 31 日期间在东欧发生的所有恐怖主义事件进行了搜索。在进行本研究时,2020 年和 2021 年的数据尚未可用。收集了主要武器类型、事件发生的国家以及死亡和受伤人数等信息。结果被导出到 Excel 电子表格(Microsoft Corp.;美国华盛顿州雷德蒙德)中进行分析。

结果

在 1970 年至 2019 年期间,东欧共有 3901 起与恐怖主义有关的事件。这些袭击总共造成 5391 人死亡,9538 人受伤。在该地区的所有袭击中,爆炸物是最常用的武器类型,占 59.2%,其次是枪支,占 27.6%。

结论

从 1970 年到 2019 年,东欧共发生 3901 起恐怖袭击事件,造成 5391 人死亡,9538 人受伤。其中 72.3%发生在俄罗斯和乌克兰。自 2014 年达到峰值以来,恐怖袭击急剧下降,但自 20 世纪 70 年代以来,袭击事件呈总体上升趋势。

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