Meng Fanwen, Tan Aidan Lyanzhiang, Heng Bee Hoon, Leow Melvin Khee Shing, Kannapiran Palvannan
Department of Health Services and Outcomes Research, National Healthcare Group, Singapore.
Preventive Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore.
Health Syst (Basingstoke). 2021 Jan 5;11(2):75-83. doi: 10.1080/20476965.2020.1860654. eCollection 2022.
The increasing prevalence of the chronic disease is of considerable concern to health-care organisations. Prevention programmes to patients with early chronic disease have the potential to improve individual health and quality of life through disease avoidance or delay and to save the medical cost of the health care system. Due to the limited budget in healthcare this study seeks to analyse the feasibility of a programme prior to implementation. A mathematical model is developed to determine incidence reduction rate at which the underlying cost break-even can be achieved; consequently, the programme would be feasible. We show the existence and uniqueness of the underlying incidence reduction and establish the feasibility frontier concerning the trade-offs between intervention effective period and incidence reduction rate. We use a diabetes prevention programme to demonstrate the efficiency and advantage of the model. The proposed model would inform decision-makers scientific principles in determining an intervention for implementation.
慢性病患病率的不断上升引起了医疗保健机构的极大关注。针对早期慢性病患者的预防计划有可能通过避免或延缓疾病来改善个人健康和生活质量，并节省医疗保健系统的医疗成本。由于医疗保健预算有限，本研究旨在分析一项计划在实施前的可行性。开发了一个数学模型来确定能够实现潜在成本收支平衡的发病率降低率；因此，该计划将是可行的。我们证明了潜在发病率降低的存在性和唯一性，并建立了关于干预有效期和发病率降低率之间权衡的可行性边界。我们使用一个糖尿病预防计划来证明该模型的有效性和优势。所提出的模型将为决策者在确定实施干预措施时提供科学依据。
