School of Finance, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, China.
Front Public Health. 2022 May 19;10:911535. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.911535. eCollection 2022.
The document, points out that in order to actively respond to the aging population in China, it is necessary to steadily increase the endowment wealth reserves. To achieve this goal, it is urgent to stochastically assess the future financial situation of the basic pension insurance in China, grasp its various possible conditions, trends, and corresponding confidence intervals, so that the government can take targeted measures to gradually consolidate the wealth reserves for this basic insurance first, and then steadily increase the social wealth reserves for the elderly. Thus, this paper first analyzes the characteristics of the aging population of insureds participating in basic pension insurance, and then randomly simulates the long-term financial situation of the basic pension insurance. The study found that the aging of the insureds has the characteristics of "fierce coming and slow decline" and "long-term seriousness." Among the six indicators of the financial situation of basic pension insurance, Indicator 1 (the current year's expenditures as a proportion of current year's contributions), Indicator 2 (current year's balance of contributions and expenditures), Indicator 3 (current year's payment gap as a proportion of current year's contributions), Indicator 4 (accumulated balance), Indicator 5 (fund ratio), and Indicator 6 (accumulated payment gap as a proportion of current year's contributions) are respectively in the range of [0.73%, 1.80%], [-12.05, -0.12] trillion yuan, [0.29%, 3.89%], [-133.39, -5.62] trillion yuan, [2032, 2043] years and [6.72%, 215.63%] with a probability of 95%. We analyzed the influence direction and degree of main parameters on the financial situation of the fund and analyzed the impact of parameter value paths on the final financial status of the fund to improve the ability to strengthen fund reserve. The backtracking found that if the value path of the average salary growth rate shows a trend of rising first and then falling, then the final financial situation at the end of the period will be "worse." If it shows a trend of falling first and then rising, the final financial situation will be "better."
文档指出，为积极应对中国人口老龄化，有必要稳步增加养老金财富储备。要实现这一目标，迫切需要随机评估中国基本养老保险的未来财务状况，把握其各种可能的情况、趋势和相应的置信区间，使政府能够采取有针对性的措施，首先逐步巩固这种基本保险的财富储备，然后稳步增加老年人的社会财富储备。因此，本文首先分析了参加基本养老保险的参保人员老龄化的特点，然后随机模拟了基本养老保险的长期财务状况。研究发现，参保人员老龄化具有“来得猛、去得慢”和“长期性严重”的特点。在基本养老保险财务状况的六个指标中，指标 1（当年支出占当年缴费的比例）、指标 2（当年收支结余）、指标 3（当年支付缺口占当年缴费的比例）、指标 4（累计结余）、指标 5（基金比例）和指标 6（累计支付缺口占当年缴费的比例）分别在[0.73%，1.80%]、[-12.05，-0.12]万亿元、[0.29%，3.89%]、[-133.39，-5.62]万亿元、[2032，2043]年和[6.72%，215.63%]范围内，概率为 95%。我们分析了主要参数对基金财务状况的影响方向和程度，并分析了参数值路径对基金最终财务状况的影响，以提高加强基金储备的能力。回溯发现，如果平均工资增长率的价值路径呈现先升后降的趋势，那么期末的财务状况将“更糟”。如果它呈现先降后升的趋势，那么最终的财务状况将会“更好”。
