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评估连续接种疫苗和自愿隔离对 COVID-19 动态的影响:SEIR 传染病模型的数学最优控制。

Assessing the Impact of Continuous Vaccination and Voluntary Isolation on the Dynamics of COVID-19: A Mathematical Optimal Control of SEIR Epidemic Model.

机构信息

School of Science, Jiangnan University, 1800 Lihu Avenue, Wuxi, Jiangsu 214122, China.

出版信息

Comput Intell Neurosci. 2022 Jun 2;2022:3309420. doi: 10.1155/2022/3309420. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

In order to study the impact of continuous vaccination and voluntary isolation for the COVID-19, a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-quarantine-vaccines (SEIR-QV) model is proposed. A basic regeneration number is defined to determine the extinction or persistence of the disease. We numerically analyze the impact of key parameters based on actual parameters of COVID-19, such as the vaccination rate, population importation rate, and natural (or causal) mortality transmission rate on the dynamics of disease transmission. Then we obtain sensitivity indices of some parameters on by sensitivity analysis. Finally, the stability of the system and the effectiveness of the optimal control strategy are verified by numerical simulation.

摘要

为了研究新冠病毒(COVID-19)的持续接种和自愿隔离的影响,提出了一个易感-暴露-感染-恢复-隔离-疫苗(SEIR-QV)模型。定义了基本再生数 ,以确定疾病的灭绝或持续。我们根据 COVID-19 的实际参数,如疫苗接种率、人口输入率和自然(或因果)死亡率传播率,对关键参数的影响进行数值分析,以了解疾病传播动力学。然后,我们通过敏感性分析获得了一些参数对 的敏感性指数。最后,通过数值模拟验证了系统的稳定性和最优控制策略的有效性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91ad/9161137/8bbd7bf7ea5c/CIN2022-3309420.001.jpg

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