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评估加泰罗尼亚关闭酒吧和餐馆的政策及其对流动性和 COVID19 发病率的影响。

Evaluating the policy of closing bars and restaurants in Cataluña and its effects on mobility and COVID19 incidence.

机构信息

Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Life Science, 08034, Barcelona, Spain.

Universidad Complutense Madrid, Madrid, Spain.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2022 Jun 7;12(1):9132. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-11531-y.


DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-11531-y
PMID:35672332
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9174270/
Abstract

The world has gone through unprecedented changes since the global pandemic hit. During the early phase of the pandemic, the absence of known drugs or pharmaceutical treatments forced governments to introduce different policies in order to help reduce contagion rates and manage the economic consequences of the pandemic. This paper analyses the causal impact on mobility and COVID19 incidence from policy makers in Cataluña, Spain. We use anonymized phone-based mobility data together with reported incidence and apply a series of causal impact models frequently used in econometrics and policy evaluation in order to measure the policies impact. We analyse the case of Cataluña and the public policy decision of closing all bars and restaurants down for a 5 week period between 2020-16-10 and 2020-23-11. We find that this decision led to a significant reduction in mobility. It not only led to reductions in mobility but from a behavioural economics standpoint, we highlight how people responded to the policy decision. Moreover, the policy of closing bars and restaurants slowed the incidence rate of COVID19 after a time lag has been taken into account. These findings are significant since governments worldwide want to restrict movements of people in order to slow down COVID19 incidence without infringing on their rights directly.

摘要

自全球大流行以来,世界发生了前所未有的变化。在大流行的早期阶段,由于缺乏已知的药物或药物治疗方法,各国政府不得不出台不同的政策,以帮助降低传染率并应对大流行的经济后果。本文分析了西班牙加泰罗尼亚地区政策制定者对流动性和 COVID19 发病率的因果影响。我们使用基于匿名电话的移动数据以及报告的发病率,并应用计量经济学和政策评估中常用的一系列因果影响模型,以衡量政策的影响。我们分析了加泰罗尼亚的案例,以及在 2020-16-10 至 2020-23-11 期间关闭所有酒吧和餐馆 5 周的公共政策决定。我们发现,这一决定导致流动性显著减少。它不仅导致流动性减少,而且从行为经济学的角度来看,我们强调了人们对政策决定的反应。此外,考虑到时滞后,关闭酒吧和餐馆的政策减缓了 COVID19 的发病率。这些发现意义重大,因为全球各国政府都希望限制人员流动,以减缓 COVID19 的发病率,而不直接侵犯他们的权利。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/ebf3d9819b40/41598_2022_11531_Fig16_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/b21e07c388ec/41598_2022_11531_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/07d252858415/41598_2022_11531_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/d763af41bf90/41598_2022_11531_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/cabd178bf344/41598_2022_11531_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/cc94d9e5da48/41598_2022_11531_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/9ba6552561d6/41598_2022_11531_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/50208184b0e9/41598_2022_11531_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/ff7cdb798936/41598_2022_11531_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/4470d95833b9/41598_2022_11531_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/02cd84514a35/41598_2022_11531_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/828318441720/41598_2022_11531_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/305ebe516756/41598_2022_11531_Fig12_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/8e77102eb173/41598_2022_11531_Fig13_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/b97dfa78df5e/41598_2022_11531_Fig14_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/84b62a48bcac/41598_2022_11531_Fig15_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/ebf3d9819b40/41598_2022_11531_Fig16_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/b21e07c388ec/41598_2022_11531_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/07d252858415/41598_2022_11531_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/d763af41bf90/41598_2022_11531_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/cabd178bf344/41598_2022_11531_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/cc94d9e5da48/41598_2022_11531_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/9ba6552561d6/41598_2022_11531_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/50208184b0e9/41598_2022_11531_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/ff7cdb798936/41598_2022_11531_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/4470d95833b9/41598_2022_11531_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/02cd84514a35/41598_2022_11531_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/828318441720/41598_2022_11531_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/305ebe516756/41598_2022_11531_Fig12_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/8e77102eb173/41598_2022_11531_Fig13_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/b97dfa78df5e/41598_2022_11531_Fig14_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/84b62a48bcac/41598_2022_11531_Fig15_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace6/9174270/ebf3d9819b40/41598_2022_11531_Fig16_HTML.jpg

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[1]
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引用本文的文献

[1]
Assessing the impact of interregional mobility on COVID19 spread in Spain using transfer entropy.

Sci Rep. 2025-8-26

[2]
An agent based simulation of COVID-19 history in Catalonia using extensive real datasets.

Sci Rep. 2024-12-30

[3]
A mixture of mobility and meteorological data provides a high correlation with COVID-19 growth in an infection-naive population: a study for Spanish provinces.

Front Public Health. 2024

[4]
Concentric regulatory zones failed to halt surging COVID-19: Brooklyn 2020.

Front Public Health. 2022

本文引用的文献

[1]
Do COVID-19 Policies Affect Mobility Behaviour? Evidence from 75 Canadian and American Cities.

Can Public Policy. 2020-8-1

[2]
Urban density and COVID-19: understanding the US experience.

Ann Reg Sci. 2022-11-28

[3]
COVID-19 Flow-Maps an open geographic information system on COVID-19 and human mobility for Spain.

Sci Data. 2021-11-30

[4]
The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories.

BMC Med. 2021-2-5

[5]
The Immediate Effect of COVID-19 Policies on Social-Distancing Behavior in the United States.

Public Health Rep. 2021

[6]
The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, demographic, social, and climatic factors on the initial growth rate of COVID-19: A cross-country study.

Sci Total Environ. 2021-3-15

[7]
Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening.

Nature. 2021-1

[8]
Limitations of using mobile phone data to model COVID-19 transmission in the USA.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2021-5

[9]
Impact of population density on Covid-19 infected and mortality rate in India.

Model Earth Syst Environ. 2021

[10]
The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model.

SSM Popul Health. 2020-12

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