Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Conserv Biol. 2022 Dec;36(6):e13964. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13964. Epub 2022 Aug 24.
In China, as elsewhere, amphibians are highly endangered. Anthropogenic environmental change has affected the distribution and population dynamics of species, and species distributions at a broad scale are strongly driven by climate and species' ability to disperse. Yet, current knowledge remains limited on how widespread human activity affects the distribution patterns of amphibians in China and whether this effect extends beyond climate. We compiled a relatively comprehensive database on the distribution of 196 amphibian species in China from the literature, public databases, and field data. We obtained 25,826 records on almost 50% of known species in China. To test how environmental factors and human activities influence the current distribution of amphibians (1960-1990), we used range filling, which is species realized ranges relative to their potential climate distribution. We used all species occurrence records to represent realized range and niche models to predict potential distribution range. To reduce uncertainty, we used 3 regression methods (beta regression, generalized boosted regression models, and random forest) to test the associations of species range filling with human activity, climate, topography, and range size. The results of the 3 approaches were consistent. At the species level, mean annual precipitation (climate) had the most effect on spatial distribution pattern of amphibians in China, followed by range size. Human activity ranked last. At the spatial level, mean annual precipitation remained the most important factor. Regions in southeastern of China that are currently moist supported the highest amphibian diversity, but were predicted to experience a decline in precipitation under climate change scenarios. Consequently, the distributions of amphibians will likely shift to the northwest in the future, which could affect future conservation efforts.
在中国，与其他地方一样，两栖动物高度濒危。人为的环境变化影响了物种的分布和种群动态，而物种的广泛分布强烈受到气候和物种扩散能力的驱动。然而，目前对于人类活动如何广泛影响中国两栖动物的分布模式以及这种影响是否超出气候因素，人们的了解仍然有限。我们从文献、公共数据库和实地数据中编译了一个关于中国 196 种两栖动物分布的相对全面的数据库。我们获得了近 50%中国已知物种的 25826 条记录。为了测试环境因素和人类活动如何影响两栖动物的当前分布（1960-1990 年），我们使用了范围填充，即物种实现范围相对于其潜在气候分布的范围填充。我们使用所有物种的出现记录来表示实现范围，使用生态位模型来预测潜在的分布范围。为了减少不确定性，我们使用了 3 种回归方法（贝叶斯回归、广义增强回归模型和随机森林）来检验物种范围填充与人类活动、气候、地形和范围大小的关联。这 3 种方法的结果是一致的。在物种水平上，平均年降水量（气候）对中国两栖动物的空间分布模式影响最大，其次是范围大小。人类活动排名最后。在空间水平上，平均年降水量仍然是最重要的因素。中国东南部目前湿润的地区支持着最高的两栖动物多样性，但在气候变化情景下，预计这些地区的降水量将会下降。因此，未来两栖动物的分布可能会向西北方向转移，这可能会影响未来的保护工作。
