Nuijten Mark, Capri Stefano
A2M, Health Economics and Valuation, The Netherlands.
Professor School of Economics and Management, Cattaneo-LIUC University, Castellanza (Varese), Italy.
J Mark Access Health Policy. 2022 May 29;10(1):2080631. doi: 10.1080/20016689.2022.2080631. eCollection 2022.
In order to optimize positioning and associated drug price for both payer and investor, it is for a company essential to forecast the potential market access attractiveness for the new drug for different indications at the early onset of the clinical development program. This analysis must include the constraints from the perspective of the payer, but also the biotech companies, who require a minimum drug price to satisfy their investors. This paper aims to provide an Integrated Valuation Model for payer and investor, bridging concepts from health economics and economic valuation reflecting the perspectives of the payer and the investor for a drug in early clinical development phase. The concept is illustrated for a new hypothetical drug (Product X) in advanced breast cancer in 1-line, 2-line, and 3-line position.
The Integrated Valuation Model includes the outcomes of the budget impact model, pricing matrix model, and cost-effectiveness model reflecting the payer's perspective. These models are interacted and linked with a discounted cash flow model in order to reflect also the economic value from the investor's perspective.
The maximum price in 1-line position is €269.7 for the payer and the minimum price is €14.7 for the investor, which are unit prices per administration corresponding with treatment regimens for the comparative treatments. In 2-line position, the maximum price is €274.1 for the payer and the minimum price for the investor increases to €184.5 for the investor because of the smaller market size in 2-line position, which leads to a smaller pricing corridor to satisfy both payer and investor. Consequently, Product X has market access attractiveness for both payer and investor in 1-line and 2-line position. However, the minimum price €942.7 in 3-line position for the investor is higher than the maximum price €283.3 for the payer, which means there is no market potential.
The practical strategic application of the Integrated Valuation Model is optimization of positioning and price of Product X. Hence, it can be a transparent tool in early-stage development of a compound based on upfront assessment of market access attractiveness for the payer and the investor.
为了优化支付方和投资方的定位及相关药品价格，对于一家公司而言，在临床开发项目早期预测新药针对不同适应症的潜在市场准入吸引力至关重要。这种分析必须考虑支付方的限制因素，同时也要考虑生物技术公司的需求，这些公司需要最低药品价格来满足其投资者。本文旨在为支付方和投资方提供一个综合估值模型，将健康经济学和经济估值的概念结合起来，反映临床开发早期阶段药品支付方和投资方的观点。以一种用于一线、二线和三线晚期乳腺癌的假设新药（产品X）为例阐述这一概念。
综合估值模型包括反映支付方观点的预算影响模型、定价矩阵模型和成本效益模型的结果。这些模型相互作用并与贴现现金流模型相联系，以便也能反映投资方的经济价值。
一线治疗时，支付方的最高价格为每给药一次269.7欧元，投资方的最低价格为14.7欧元，这些是与对照治疗方案相对应的每给药一次的单价。二线治疗时，支付方的最高价格为274.1欧元，由于二线治疗的市场规模较小，投资方的最低价格升至184.5欧元，这导致满足支付方和投资方需求的定价区间变小。因此，产品X在一线和二线治疗时对支付方和投资方都具有市场准入吸引力。然而，三线治疗时投资方的最低价格942.7欧元高于支付方的最高价格283.3欧元，这意味着没有市场潜力。
综合估值模型的实际战略应用是优化产品X的定位和价格。因此，基于对支付方和投资方市场准入吸引力的前期评估，它可以成为化合物早期开发中的一个透明工具。
