Zhang Runsen, Hanaoka Tatsuya
Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Japan.
Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan.
Nat Commun. 2022 Jun 24;13(1):3629. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-31354-9.
The transport sector will play a pivotal role in achieving China's carbon neutrality goal by 2060. This study develops a regional transport-energy integrated model to analyze the long-term pathways and strategies toward the carbon-neutral ground transport sector in China. A set of scenarios are created to identify the effectiveness and feasibility of low-carbon policy measures based on the well-known transport strategies within the Avoid-Shift-Improve framework. Our simulations shed light on synergistic coupling and trade-offs among different strategies and instruments for prescribing a desirable mix of policy measures that maximize the synergies and minimize the trade-offs. Here, we show that a region-specific policy package designed from a balanced perspective under the Avoid-Shift-Improve framework has the potential to realize a deep decarbonization in the transport sector and will greatly assist in achieving China's carbon neutrality by 2060.
交通运输部门在实现中国2060年碳中和目标中将发挥关键作用。本研究开发了一个区域运输-能源综合模型，以分析中国地面运输部门实现碳中和的长期路径和战略。基于“避免-转移-改善”框架内著名的运输策略，创建了一系列情景，以确定低碳政策措施的有效性和可行性。我们的模拟揭示了不同策略和手段之间的协同耦合和权衡，以便制定出理想的政策措施组合，实现协同效应最大化和权衡最小化。在此，我们表明，在“避免-转移-改善”框架下从平衡角度设计的区域特定政策包有潜力实现运输部门的深度脱碳，并将极大地助力中国在2060年实现碳中和。
