Carrère Céline, Olarreaga Marcelo, Raess Damian
Geneva School of Economics and Management, and Global Studies Institute, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
Rev Int Organ. 2022;17(3):453-483. doi: 10.1007/s11558-021-09423-3. Epub 2021 May 29.
We explore the impact of the introduction and design of labor clauses (LCs) in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral trade flows over the period 1990-2014. While it is not a priori clear if the inclusion of LCs in PTAs will decrease or increase bilateral trade, we expect the direction of trade to matter, that is, we expect to observe the (negative or positive) impact of LCs in the South-North trade configuration. We also expect, in that configuration, stronger LCs to yield stronger (negative or positive) effects on bilateral trade flows. Using a novel dataset on the content of labor provisions in PTAs, we find in line with our first expectation that while the introduction of LCs has on average no impact on bilateral trade flows, it increases exports of low and middle-income countries with weaker labor standards in North-South trade agreements. Consistent with our second expectation, this positive impact is mostly driven by LCs with institutionalized cooperation provisions. In contrast, LCs with strong enforcement mechanisms do not have a statistically significant impact on exports of developing countries in North-South PTAs. The results are inconsistent with the ideas that LCs are set for protectionist reasons or have protectionist effects, casting doubt on the logic for the reluctance of many developing countries to include LCs in their trade agreements.
The online version contains supplementary material (Online Appendix with annexes 1-4) available at 10.1007/s11558-021-09423-3.
我们探讨了1990年至2014年期间优惠贸易协定（PTA）中劳工条款（LC）的引入和设计对双边贸易流量的影响。虽然PTA中纳入LC会减少还是增加双边贸易在一开始并不明确，但我们预计贸易方向很重要，也就是说，我们预计会观察到LC在南北贸易格局中的（负面或正面）影响。我们还预计，在这种格局下，更强有力的LC会对双边贸易流量产生更强（负面或正面）的影响。利用一个关于PTA中劳工条款内容的全新数据集，我们发现与我们的第一个预期相符，即虽然LC的引入平均而言对双边贸易流量没有影响，但在南北贸易协定中，它增加了劳动标准较弱的低收入和中等收入国家的出口。与我们的第二个预期一致，这种积极影响主要由具有制度化合作条款的LC驱动。相比之下，具有强有力执行机制的LC对南北PTA中发展中国家的出口没有统计学上的显著影响。这些结果与LC是出于保护主义原因而设立或具有保护主义效果的观点不一致，这对许多发展中国家不愿在其贸易协定中纳入LC的逻辑提出了质疑。
在线版本包含补充材料（带有附件1 - 4的在线附录），可在10.1007/s11558 - 021 - 09423 - 3获取。
