Clottey Karen N B, Debrah Godwin, Asiedu Louis, Iddi Samuel
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Ghana, PO Box LG 115, Legon-Accra, Ghana.
Sci Afr. 2022 Jul;16:e01250. doi: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2022.e01250. Epub 2022 Jun 23.
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) are used in public health to mitigate the risk and impact of epidemics or pandemics in the absence of medical or pharmaceutical solutions. Prior to the release of vaccines, COVID-19 control solely depended on NPIs. The Government of Ghana after assessing early NPIs introduced at the early stage of the pandemic began to ease some restrictions by the opening of international borders with isolation and quarantine measures enforced. It was argued by some experts that this was a hasty decision. In this study, we assessed the impact of the opening of borders to ascertain if this action caused a surge or otherwise in cases in the country. Using data from the database on Africa's records of COVID-19 from the John Hopkins University, the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) time-series regression model for count data was applied to study effects in Ghana during a 4-month and 8-month period post-opening of borders. The study showed that after the decision of the government to open international borders, Ghana's expected case count declined by in the 4-month period and in the 8-month period. This gives an indication of the gradual reversal of the gains made due to the early implementation of NPIs. Notably, this may not only be attributed to the opening of borders but the relaxation of the strict enforcement measures that were put in place at the onset of the pandemic in Ghana. There is therefore the need for continuous enforcement of intervention measures to reduce case counts, particularly with the emergence of new COVID-19 virus strains. The study provides some recommendations for policy and improvements in model building such as developing better data collection system in Ghana, investigating more control variables, estimating the decaying effect of interventions, and ensuring better preparations prior to easing of public health restrictions.
在缺乏医学或药物解决方案的情况下，非药物干预措施（NPI）被用于公共卫生领域，以减轻流行病或大流行病的风险和影响。在疫苗发布之前，新冠疫情的防控完全依赖于非药物干预措施。加纳政府在评估了疫情早期实施的非药物干预措施后，开始放松一些限制，开放国际边境，并实施隔离和检疫措施。一些专家认为这是一个仓促的决定。在本研究中，我们评估了开放边境的影响，以确定这一行动是否导致该国病例激增或出现其他情况。利用约翰·霍普金斯大学关于非洲新冠疫情记录数据库中的数据，应用计数数据的广义线性模型（GLM）时间序列回归模型，研究边境开放后4个月和8个月期间加纳的情况。研究表明，在政府做出开放国际边境的决定后，加纳的预期病例数在4个月期间下降了 ，在8个月期间下降了 。这表明由于早期实施非药物干预措施所取得的成果正在逐渐逆转。值得注意的是，这可能不仅归因于边境开放，还归因于加纳疫情初期实施的严格措施的放松。因此，有必要持续实施干预措施以减少病例数，特别是随着新冠病毒新毒株的出现。该研究为政策制定和模型构建的改进提供了一些建议，例如在加纳建立更好的数据收集系统、研究更多的控制变量、估计干预措施的衰减效应，以及在放松公共卫生限制之前确保做好更好的准备。
