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1990年至2021年可改变风险因素所致肝癌的流行病学和人口统计学分析

Epidemiological and demographic analysis of liver cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors from 1990 to 2021.

作者信息

Zhao Yingwu, Peng Xue, Zhong Zilan, Pan Wenhao, Zheng Jiyuan, Tian Xiaona, Han Xinfeng

机构信息

The Eighth Clinical Medical College of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Foshan, China.

Foshan Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Foshan, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jun 1;15(1):19217. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-02031-w.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-02031-w
PMID:40451844
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12127442/
Abstract

Liver cancer is a leading cause of cancer mortality globally, with high Body Mass Index (BMI), alcohol consumption, and smoking identified as major modifiable risk factors. This study assessed global trends in liver cancer mortality attributable to these factors from 1990 to 2021, using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study. Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) attributable to liver cancer were analyzed by gender, age, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) region. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for liver cancer attributable to smoking showed a decreasing trend (EAPC: - 0.844 (- 0.961, - 0.727)), while ASMRs for liver cancer attributable to high BMI increased across all age groups, especially in high-SDI regions. Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modeling indicated that the liver cancer burden attributable to high BMI rose sharply in recent years, with projections suggesting global DALYs for liver cancer attributable to high BMI will reach 145,100 by 2050, predominantly affecting males. A visualization platform for these results is available at http://116.196.73.86:3838/GBD-LiverCancer/ . These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted health policies to mitigate the impact of high BMI on liver cancer, particularly through obesity prevention efforts in high-SDI regions.

摘要

肝癌是全球癌症死亡的主要原因之一，高体重指数（BMI）、饮酒和吸烟被确定为主要的可改变风险因素。本研究利用2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据，评估了1990年至2021年期间由这些因素导致的肝癌死亡率的全球趋势。按性别、年龄和社会人口指数（SDI）区域分析了肝癌导致的死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。归因于吸烟的肝癌年龄标准化死亡率（ASMRs）呈下降趋势（EAPC：-0.844（-0.961，-0.727）），而归因于高BMI的肝癌ASMRs在所有年龄组中均有所上升，尤其是在高SDI区域。年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型表明，近年来归因于高BMI的肝癌负担急剧上升，预测显示到2050年，归因于高BMI的全球肝癌DALYs将达到145,100，主要影响男性。这些结果的可视化平台可在http://116.196.73.86:3838/GBD-LiverCancer/ 查看。这些发现凸显了迫切需要制定有针对性的卫生政策，以减轻高BMI对肝癌的影响，特别是通过在高SDI区域开展肥胖预防工作。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a643/12127442/8c35305cabc4/41598_2025_2031_Fig10_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a643/12127442/76a64d255470/41598_2025_2031_Fig8_HTML.jpg
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本文引用的文献

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