Cariappa Ag Adeeth, Acharya Kamlesh Kumar, Adhav Chaitanya Ashok, R Sendhil, Ramasundaram P, Kumar Anuj, Singh Satyavir, Singh Gyanendra Pratap
National Institution for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog, New Delhi - 110001, India.
ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal, 132001, Haryana, India.
Socioecon Plann Sci. 2022 Dec;84:101366. doi: 10.1016/j.seps.2022.101366. Epub 2022 Jun 27.
COVID-19 incidence in India, impacted the food market, wheat in particular, as the crop harvest coincided with the lockdown disrupting the supply chain and prices posing a few researchable issues - the lockdown effect on wheat supply chain; how the state intervention bolstered the sector to restore; the insights the government interventions offer, . The study, using the interrupted time series analysis, investigated the disruption in wheat supply chain, and captured the impact of lockdown on wheat prices. Despite relaxation allowed to agricultural-related activities, lack of transport and labour shortage were reported. Nevertheless, the country registered a record wheat procurement of 38.99 million tonnes. Though the prices spiked post-lockdown, there was no evidence of structural-break and persisting volatility. The findings affirm that supply chain disruption is the main driver for the observed price changes and government interventions like staggered procurement and logistics support resulted in restoration of the wheat economy. The relief measures, infrastructure and its efficient usage, and easing restrictions rendered resilience to wheat supply chain against the COVID-19 shocks. The experience of coordinated efforts of the state machinery and the cooperative farm communities offers confidence about the national capacities to manage disasters of even greater scale in agriculture.
印度的新冠疫情发病率影响了食品市场，尤其是小麦市场，因为作物收获期恰逢封锁，扰乱了供应链，价格也引发了一些值得研究的问题——封锁对小麦供应链的影响；国家干预如何支持该行业恢复；政府干预提供了哪些见解。该研究采用中断时间序列分析，调查了小麦供应链的中断情况，并捕捉了封锁对小麦价格的影响。尽管与农业相关的活动得到了放宽，但仍有运输短缺和劳动力短缺的报告。尽管如此，该国的小麦采购量创下了3899万吨的纪录。尽管封锁后价格飙升，但没有证据表明存在结构性断裂和持续波动。研究结果证实，供应链中断是观察到的价格变化的主要驱动因素，而诸如错开采购和物流支持等政府干预措施导致了小麦经济的恢复。救济措施、基础设施及其有效利用，以及限制的放宽，使小麦供应链对新冠疫情冲击具有了韧性。国家机构和合作农场社区的协同努力经验，让人对国家应对更大规模农业灾害的能力充满信心。
