Bala Ritu, Kaur Jaspal, Tak Parminder Singh, Sandhu Sarabjot Kaur, Pannu Pushpinder Paul Singh
Department of Plant Breeding and Genetics, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 141001 India.
Department of Plant Pathology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 141001 India.
Indian Phytopathol. 2022;75(3):723-730. doi: 10.1007/s42360-022-00520-w. Epub 2022 Jun 25.
Karnal bunt (KB) of wheat incited by Mitra is now gaining importance from the last few years due to its increasing incidence. Regular surveys are conducted to collect wheat grains samples from different grain markets of Punjab, India. Since weather plays a significant role in the initiation as well as the development of Karnal bunt. Thus, the variation in Karnal bunt incidence worked out and is being interpreted in relation to the prevailing environmental conditions during the most susceptible stage for the two decades (1991-92 to 2014-15) for the Punjab, India. The incidence of Karnal bunt was correlated with the weather parameters during the February and March of the corresponding year. The correlation analysis revealed the positive role of rainfall, rainy days, evening relative humidity, and Humid thermal index of March and the negative role of sunshine hours of February in the development and incidence of Karnal bunt. By using these parameters, a multiple regression model was developed and validated for forecasting the disease. The regression analysis showed a coefficient of determination of 0.77 and a D.W value of 1.88. The detailed analysis of historical data for more than two decades divulged the amount of total rainfall as well as the number of rainy days of March as the most critical factor for the Karnal bunt development.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42360-022-00520-w.
由米特拉引发的小麦卡纳尔腥黑穗病（KB）在过去几年中因发病率上升而日益受到关注。定期进行调查，从印度旁遮普邦不同的谷物市场收集小麦籽粒样本。由于天气在卡纳尔腥黑穗病的发生和发展中起着重要作用。因此，计算出了卡纳尔腥黑穗病发病率的变化，并结合印度旁遮普邦在最易感阶段（1991 - 92年至2014 - 15年）的主要环境条件进行了解释。卡纳尔腥黑穗病的发病率与相应年份2月和3月的天气参数相关。相关分析表明，3月的降雨量、降雨天数、傍晚相对湿度和湿热指数对卡纳尔腥黑穗病的发展和发病有积极作用，而2月的日照时数有消极作用。利用这些参数，建立并验证了一个用于预测该病的多元回归模型。回归分析显示决定系数为0.77，D.W值为1.88。对二十多年历史数据的详细分析表明，3月的总降雨量和降雨天数是卡纳尔腥黑穗病发展的最关键因素。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s42360 - 022 - 00520 - w获取的补充材料。
