Murphy J M, Berwick D M, Weinstein M C, Borus J F, Budman S H, Klerman G L
Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1987 Jun;44(6):550-5. doi: 10.1001/archpsyc.1987.01800180068011.
Evaluation of psychiatric screening and diagnostic tests has benefited from the application of sensitivity, specificity, the kappa-statistic, and predictive values. These measures derive their meaning from a single criterion threshold. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis extends assessment of test performance by providing information about all possible pairs of achievable sensitivity and specificity values. The ROC analysis offers a comprehensive means for comparing different tests or different scoring procedures for one test. As a demonstration we used the ROC analysis to evaluate three types of scoring rules for one psychiatric test, the Health Opinion Survey. The demonstration indicated that ROC analysis can profitably take a place among the standard methods for test evaluation in psychiatric research. In addition, ROC analysis can assist clinicians in selecting appropriate test procedures for particular patient populations.
精神病学筛查和诊断测试的评估受益于敏感性、特异性、kappa统计量和预测值的应用。这些指标从单一标准阈值中得出其意义。受试者工作特征（ROC）分析通过提供关于所有可能的可实现敏感性和特异性值对的信息，扩展了测试性能的评估。ROC分析为比较不同测试或同一测试的不同评分程序提供了一种全面的方法。作为一个示例，我们使用ROC分析来评估一项精神病学测试——健康意见调查的三种评分规则。该示例表明，ROC分析在精神病学研究的测试评估标准方法中可以发挥有益作用。此外，ROC分析可以帮助临床医生为特定患者群体选择合适的测试程序。
