National Institute of Health Research and Development (NIHRD), The Ministry of Health of Republic of Indonesia.
J ASEAN Fed Endocr Soc. 2022;37(1):46-52. doi: 10.15605/jafes.037.01.09. Epub 2022 Apr 27.
To develop a simple, non-invasive tool for predicting the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methodology. A total of 4418 nondiabetic respondents living in Bogor were included in this cohort study. Their ages ranged from 25 to 60 years old and were followed for 6 years with interviews, physical examinations and laboratory tests. The investigators used logistic regression to create a tool for diabetes risk determination.
The cumulative incidence of T2DM was 17.9%. Risk factors significantly associated with T2DM included age, obesity, central obesity, hypertension and lack of physical activity. The Bogor Diabetes Risk Prediction (BDRP) chart had a cut-off of 0.128, with sensitivity of 76.6% and specificity of 50.3%. The Positive Predictive Value (PPV) was 21.6% and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) was 92.3%. The Area under the Curve (AUC) was 0.70 with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 0.675-0.721.
The BDRP chart is a simple and non-invasive tool to predict T2DM. In addition, the BDRP chart is reliable and can be easily used in primary health care.
开发一种简单、无创的工具，用于预测 2 型糖尿病（T2DM）的发病。
本队列研究共纳入 4418 名居住在茂物的非糖尿病患者。他们的年龄在 25 至 60 岁之间，随访 6 年，通过访谈、体检和实验室检查进行随访。研究人员使用逻辑回归创建了一种用于确定糖尿病风险的工具。
T2DM 的累积发病率为 17.9%。与 T2DM 显著相关的危险因素包括年龄、肥胖、中心性肥胖、高血压和缺乏身体活动。茂物糖尿病风险预测（BDRP）图表的截断值为 0.128，灵敏度为 76.6%，特异性为 50.3%。阳性预测值（PPV）为 21.6%，阴性预测值（NPV）为 92.3%。曲线下面积（AUC）为 0.70，95%置信区间为 0.675-0.721。
BDRP 图表是一种简单、无创的预测 T2DM 的工具。此外，BDRP 图表可靠，可在初级保健中轻松使用。
