DisasterDoc LLC, Atlanta, GeorgiaUSA.
Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center Disaster Medicine Fellowship, Harvard University, Boston, MassachusettsUSA.
Prehosp Disaster Med. 2022 Aug;37(4):431-436. doi: 10.1017/S1049023X22000966.
This study compared the per capita annual global incidence rate of disasters caused by natural hazards with the annual world real gross domestic product, GDP (per global capita), as reported during 1961 through 2020.
Sixty (60) values for the world real GDP per global capita (in constant 2015 $USD) were compared to corresponding annual values for global incidence rates for five natural disaster subgroups and then for a total of twelve individual disaster types that comprise the subgroups; each expressed as an annual global incidence rate (in terms of annual incidence per 100,000 persons). Calculations of multiple linear regression, ANOVA, and Pearson's correlation coefficient were performed for comparing population-adjusted values for GDP to corresponding values.
Four out of five hydrological and meteorological disasters were found to have a positive correlation with GDP. Results of the analysis revealed a relatively high degree of correlation between world GDP and the annual incidence of flood and storm disasters (P = 6.21 × 10 and P = 4.23 × 10, respectively). The annual incidence of heat waves and cold weather disasters also appeared to correlate with GDP (P = .002 and P = .019, respectively). In comparison, wet landslides indicated no such correlation (P = .862). No significant associations were found among the seven other individual biological, climatological, and geophysical disasters and GDP.
The global incidence of four extreme weather (hydrometeorological) disasters appear to be positively associated with world real GDP during 1961-2020. These findings contradict previous postulates that the risk of disaster incidence is inversely associated with the capacity of the population.
本研究比较了 1961 年至 2020 年期间，自然灾害造成的全球灾害人均年发生率与全球实际人均国内生产总值（全球人均 GDP）的关系。
将 60 个全球实际人均 GDP（以 2015 年不变美元计）值与五个自然灾害分组的年度全球发生率相对应，并进一步与包括各分组在内的十二种自然灾害类型的年度发生率相对应；每一种灾害类型均以每年每 10 万人的发生率表示。对 GDP 的人口调整值与相应值进行了多元线性回归、方差分析和 Pearson 相关系数分析。
五种水文气象灾害中有四种与 GDP 呈正相关。分析结果显示，全球 GDP 与洪水和风暴灾害的年发生率之间存在较高的相关性（P = 6.21×10 和 P = 4.23×10）。热浪和寒冷天气灾害的年发生率似乎也与 GDP 相关（P =.002 和 P =.019）。相比之下，湿地滑坡则没有相关性（P =.862）。七种其他生物、气候和地球物理灾害与 GDP 之间没有显著关联。
在 1961 年至 2020 年期间，四种极端天气（水文气象）灾害的全球发生率似乎与世界实际 GDP 呈正相关。这些发现与之前的假设相悖，即灾害发生率的风险与人口能力成反比。
