Department of Economics, University of Messina & Center for Economic Studies CES-ifo, Italy.
Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Economics, University of Basilicata & CMET 05, Italy.
Eval Program Plann. 2022 Oct;94:102129. doi: 10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2022.102129. Epub 2022 Jul 2.
To address the economic losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have implemented, together with policies aimed at stopping the spread of the virus, a mixture of fiscal and monetary measures. This work investigates the effect of containment policies and economic support measures on economic growth in the short run, investigating a time window of six quarters in a cross country perspective. Our results confirm the existence of a negative effect of stringency measures on GDP; we also detect a positive effect from economic support measures. Moreover, looking at the interaction between these two kinds of interventions, our findings suggest that up to a relatively low level of stringency policies, economic support measures are able to positively counterbalance the negative impact of containment and closure policies. When the level of closures became more severe, however, the economic support measures that countries adopt are not able to completely recoup, in the short run, the economic losses due to stringency policies. Results suggest that in order to have a positive net effect, policymakers should take into account the level of stringency measures implemented before investing in economic support.
为了应对 COVID-19 大流行造成的经济损失，各国在实施旨在阻止病毒传播的政策的同时，还采取了财政和货币措施的组合。本研究从跨国视角考察了遏制政策和经济支持措施对短期经济增长的影响，考察了六个季度的时间窗口。我们的研究结果证实了严格措施对 GDP 的负面影响的存在；我们还发现经济支持措施具有积极影响。此外，通过观察这两种干预措施之间的相互作用，我们的研究结果表明，在相对较低水平的严格政策下，经济支持措施能够在短期内积极抵消遏制和封锁政策的负面影响。然而，当封锁水平变得更加严重时，各国采取的经济支持措施在短期内无法完全弥补严格政策造成的经济损失。结果表明，为了产生积极的净效应，政策制定者在投资经济支持之前应考虑实施的严格措施的水平。
