中国新冠疫情期间社会谣言特征的新洞察

BACKGROUND: In the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, several social rumors in the form of false news, conspiracy theories, and magical cures had ever been shared and spread among the general public at an alarming rate, causing public panic and increasing the complexity and difficulty of social management. Therefore, this study aims to reveal the characteristics and the driving factors of the social rumors during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Based on a sample of 1,537 rumors collected from Sina Weibo's debunking account, this paper first divided the sample into four categories and calculated the risk level of all kinds of rumors. Then, time evolution analysis and correlation analysis were adopted to study the time evolution characteristics and the spatial and temporal correlation characteristics of the rumors, and the four stages of development were also divided according to the number of rumors. Besides, to extract the key driving factors from 15 rumor-driving factors, the social network analysis method was used to investigate the driver-driver 1-mode network characteristics, the generation driver-rumor 2-mode network characteristics, and the spreading driver-rumor 2-mode characteristics. RESULTS: Research findings showed that the number of rumors related to COVID-19 were gradually decreased as the outbreak was brought under control, which proved the importance of epidemic prevention and control to maintain social stability. Combining the number and risk perception levels of the four types of rumors, it could be concluded that the Creating Panic-type rumors were the most harmful to society. The results of rumor drivers indicated that panic psychology and the lag in releasing government information played an essential role in driving the generation and spread of rumors. The public's low scientific literacy and difficulty in discerning highly confusing rumors encouraged them to participate in spreading rumors. CONCLUSION: The study revealed the mechanism of rumors. In addition, studies involving rumors on different emergencies and social platforms are warranted to enrich the findings.

背景：在中国 COVID-19 疫情早期，虚假新闻、阴谋论和神奇疗法等形式的虚假消息曾以惊人的速度在公众中传播和扩散，引发公众恐慌，增加了社会管理的复杂性和难度。因此，本研究旨在揭示 COVID-19 大流行期间社会谣言的特征和驱动因素。

方法：基于从新浪辟谣账号收集的 1537 条谣言样本，本文首先将样本分为四类，并计算各种谣言的风险水平。然后，采用时间演化分析和相关分析来研究谣言的时间演化特征和时空相关特征，并根据谣言数量将其分为四个发展阶段。此外，为了从 15 个谣言驱动因素中提取关键驱动因素，采用社会网络分析方法研究驱动者-驱动者 1 模式网络特征、生成驱动者-谣言 2 模式网络特征和传播驱动者-谣言 2 模式特征。

结果：研究结果表明，随着疫情得到控制，与 COVID-19 相关的谣言数量逐渐减少，这证明了疫情防控对维护社会稳定的重要性。结合四类谣言的数量和风险感知水平，可以得出制造恐慌型谣言对社会危害最大的结论。谣言驱动因素的结果表明，恐慌心理和政府信息发布滞后在谣言的产生和传播中起着至关重要的作用。公众科学素养低，难以辨别高度混淆的谣言，这鼓励他们参与传播谣言。

结论：本研究揭示了谣言的机制。此外，有必要对不同紧急情况和社会平台上的谣言进行研究，以丰富研究结果。