German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.
Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany.
Nat Ecol Evol. 2022 Sep;6(9):1299-1306. doi: 10.1038/s41559-022-01814-y. Epub 2022 Jul 14.
Species abundances and distributions are changing in response to changing climate and other anthropogenic drivers but how this translates into how well species can match their optimal climate conditions as they change is not well understood. Using a continental-scale 30-year time series, we quantified temporal trends in climate matching of North American bird species and tested whether geographical variation in rates of climate and land use change and/or species traits could underlie variation in trends among species. Overall, we found that species abundances and distributions are becoming more decoupled from climate as it changes through time. Species differences in climate matching trends were related to their ecological traits, particularly habitat specialization, but not to average rates of climate and land use change within the species' ranges. Climatic decoupling through time was particularly prominent for birds that were declining in abundance and occupancy, including threatened species. While we could not discern whether climate decoupling causes or is caused by the negative population trends, higher climatic decoupling in declining species could lead to a feedback as birds experience increasing exposure to suboptimal climatic conditions.
物种丰度和分布正在响应气候变化和其他人为驱动因素而发生变化，但物种在多大程度上能够适应其最优气候条件的变化还不太清楚。本研究使用一个大陆尺度的 30 年时间序列，量化了北美鸟类物种的气候匹配的时间趋势，并检验了物种的地理变化率和土地利用变化率以及物种特征是否会导致物种间趋势的变化。总的来说，我们发现随着时间的推移，物种的丰度和分布与气候变化的关系越来越不密切。物种在气候匹配趋势上的差异与它们的生态特征有关，特别是栖息地的专门化，但与物种范围内的平均气候和土地利用变化率无关。在数量和占有量下降的鸟类中，包括受威胁的物种，气候随时间的解耦现象尤为明显。虽然我们无法确定气候解耦是导致种群趋势负面变化的原因还是结果，但在下降的物种中，更高的气候解耦可能会导致反馈，因为鸟类会越来越多地暴露在次优的气候条件下。
