Müller Martin, Gogishvili David, Wolfe Sven Daniel
Department of Geography and Sustainability, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Environ Plan A. 2022 Sep;54(6):1200-1218. doi: 10.1177/0308518X221098741. Epub 2022 May 31.
The Olympic Games and the Football World Cups are among the most expensive projects in the world. While available theoretical explanations suggest that the revenues of mega-events are overestimated and the costs underestimated, there is no comprehensive empirical study on whether costs exceed revenues. Based on a custom-built database from public sources, this article compares the revenues and costs of the Olympic Games and World Cups between 1964 and 2018 ( = 43), together totalling close to USD 70 billion in revenues and more than USD 120 billion in costs. It finds that costs exceeded revenues in most cases: more than four out of five Olympics and World Cups ran a deficit. The average return-on-investment for an event was negative (- 38%), with mean costs of USD 2.8 billion exceeding mean revenues of USD 1.7 billion per event. The 1976 Summer Olympics in Montréal, the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi and the 2002 World Cup in Japan/South Korea recorded the highest absolute deficits. The Summer Olympics 1984 in Los Angeles, the Winter Olympics 2010 in Vancouver and the 2018 World Cup in Russia are among the few events that posted a surplus. The article concludes that the Olympic Games and the Football World Cup suffer from a structural deficit and could not exist without external subsidies. This finding urges a re-evaluation of these events as loss-making ventures that lack financial sustainability.
奥运会和足球世界杯是世界上最昂贵的项目之一。虽然现有的理论解释表明，大型赛事的收入被高估而成本被低估，但对于成本是否超过收入，尚无全面的实证研究。基于从公共来源定制的数据库，本文比较了1964年至2018年（共43项）奥运会和世界杯的收入与成本，总收入接近700亿美元，成本超过1200亿美元。研究发现，在大多数情况下成本超过了收入：超过五分之四的奥运会和世界杯出现了亏损。一项赛事的平均投资回报率为负（-38%），平均成本为28亿美元，超过了平均收入17亿美元。1976年蒙特利尔夏季奥运会、2叭4年索契冬奥会和2002年日本/韩国世界杯的绝对亏损额最高。1984年洛杉矶夏季奥运会、2010年温哥华冬奥会和2018年俄罗斯世界杯是少数实现盈利的赛事。本文得出结论，奥运会和足球世界杯存在结构性亏损，没有外部补贴就无法存在。这一发现促使人们重新评估这些赛事，将其视为缺乏财务可持续性的亏损项目。
