Fan Mu, Liu Fei, Huang Dong, Zhang Hui
Department of Sport Science, College of Education, Zhejiang University, No. 866 Yuhangtang Road, Xihu District, 310058, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.
College of football, Guangzhou Sport University, No. 1268 Guangzhou Avenue Central, Tianhe District, 519500, Guangdong Province, China.
Heliyon. 2023 Sep 17;9(10):e20252. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20252. eCollection 2023 Oct.
In the past 30 years, the global influence of the FIFA World Cup has continued to grow. According to statistics, the final match of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar attracted an audience of over 3 billion. Nowadays, nations (and regions) emphasize the correlation between overall social progress, football tradition, and national sporting prowess. This study aims to comprehend the dynamics of international football development and secure a competitive edge in the global arena. The study collected panel data from 68 countries (regions) participating in the final stage of the World Cup from 1994 to 2022. It modelled them using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to reveal the macro determinants of success and winning patterns in international football performance. The findings show that (1) football tradition's "characteristic values" (e.g. World Cup host, the experience of hosting the World Cup and the number of all-time World Cup winners) and national comprehensive sporting strength (as represented by the Olympic Games results) have significantly contributed to the national team's World Cup performance; (2) the country's Human Development Index (HDI) has a significant negative impact on World Cup performance; (3) the history of football participation (e.g. the number of years of membership in the Intercontinental Football Association (IFA), history of professional leagues) will have little impact on World Cup performance; (4) two interactive variables: population scale × national comprehensive sporting strength (GPOP × CSOGMedals) and economic level × football tradition (lnGDP × PLHistory), have a negative and positive combined effect on World Cup performance, respectively.
在过去30年里，国际足联世界杯的全球影响力持续增长。据统计，2022年卡塔尔世界杯决赛吸引了超过30亿观众。如今，各国（及地区）都强调社会整体进步、足球传统与国家体育实力之间的关联。本研究旨在理解国际足球发展的动态，并在全球舞台上获得竞争优势。该研究收集了1994年至2022年参加世界杯决赛阶段的68个国家（地区）的面板数据。使用广义线性混合模型（GLMM）对其进行建模，以揭示国际足球表现中成功和获胜模式的宏观决定因素。研究结果表明：（1）足球传统的“特征值”（如世界杯举办国、举办世界杯的经验以及世界杯冠军总数）和国家综合体育实力（以奥运会成绩为代表）对国家队的世界杯表现有显著贡献；（2）该国的人类发展指数（HDI）对世界杯表现有显著负面影响；（3）足球参与历史（如加入洲际足球协会（IFA）的年数、职业联赛历史）对世界杯表现影响不大；（4）两个交互变量：人口规模×国家综合体育实力（GPOP×CSOGMedals）和经济水平×足球传统（lnGDP×PLHistory），分别对世界杯表现有负向和正向的综合影响。
