Richstein Jörn C, Neuhoff Karsten
Climate Policy Department, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), 10117 Berlin, Germany.
Chair of Climate and Energy Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany.
iScience. 2022 Jul 1;25(8):104700. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104700. eCollection 2022 Aug 19.
The shift to climate neutrality requires new process technologies for energy-intensive industries, such as steel, chemicals, or cement. A variety of technology options exist - but they face the challenges of (i) first-of-kind costs, (ii) higher operation and investment costs, and (iii) insufficient and uncertain carbon prices, which partly stem from political uncertainty. Existing innovation policy instruments and carbon policies such as price floors can only partly address these challenges. Project-based carbon contracts-for-difference (CCfDs) guarantee investors a fixed carbon price over the contract duration, thus de-risking such investments from political and market uncertainty, and allowing governments to set carbon prices above current levels. Here we show for a case study in the steel sector that carbon mitigation costs can be reduced by up to 27% and that owing to high incremental operation costs, price floors of 79% of the CCfD price would be needed for projects to achieve bankability.
向气候中和的转变需要为钢铁、化工或水泥等能源密集型行业开发新的工艺技术。存在多种技术选择——但它们面临着以下挑战:(i)首台(套)成本,(ii)更高的运营和投资成本,以及(iii)碳价格不足且不确定,这部分源于政治不确定性。现有的创新政策工具和碳政策,如价格下限,只能部分应对这些挑战。基于项目的差价碳合约(CCfD)为投资者保证在合约期限内有固定的碳价格,从而降低此类投资面临的政治和市场不确定性风险,并使政府能够将碳价格设定在当前水平之上。在此,我们通过钢铁行业的一个案例研究表明,碳减排成本可降低多达27%,并且由于增量运营成本高昂,项目要实现可融资性,需要CCfD价格79%的价格下限。