Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1PZ, United Kingdom.
Environ Sci Technol. 2010 Mar 15;44(6):1888-94. doi: 10.1021/es902909k.
Carbon emissions from industry are dominated by production of goods in steel, cement plastic, paper, and aluminum. Demand for these materials is anticipated to double at least by 2050, by which time global carbon emissions must be reduced by at least 50%. To evaluate the challenge of meeting this target the global flows of these materials and their associated emissions are projected to 2050 under five technical scenarios. A reference scenario includes all existing and emerging efficiency measures but cannot provide sufficient reduction. The application of carbon sequestration to primary production proves to be sufficient only for cement The emissions target can always be met by reducing demand, for instance through product life extension, material substitution, or "light-weighting". Reusing components shows significant potential particularly within construction. Radical process innovation may also be possible. The results show that the first two strategies, based on increasing primary production, cannot achieve the required emissions reductions, so should be balanced by the vigorous pursuit of material efficiency to allow provision of increased material services with reduced primary production.
工业碳排放主要来自钢铁、水泥、塑料、纸张和铝等产品的生产。预计到 2050 年，这些材料的需求至少将翻一番，届时全球碳排放至少必须减少 50%。为了评估实现这一目标的挑战，根据五个技术情景对这些材料及其相关排放的全球流动情况进行了预测。参考情景包括所有现有和新兴的效率措施，但无法提供足够的减排量。将碳封存应用于初级生产证明仅足以用于水泥。通过减少需求，例如通过延长产品寿命、材料替代或“轻量化”，始终可以实现排放目标。再利用组件显示出巨大的潜力，特别是在建筑领域。激进的工艺创新也可能成为可能。研究结果表明，前两种基于增加初级生产的策略无法实现所需的减排，因此应通过大力追求材料效率来平衡，以允许在减少初级生产的情况下提供更多的材料服务。
