Tröndle Tim, Lilliestam Johan, Marelli Stefano, Pfenninger Stefan
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Berliner Straße 130, 14467 Potsdam, Germany.
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland.
Joule. 2020 Sep 16;4(9):1929-1948. doi: 10.1016/j.joule.2020.07.018.
The European potential for renewable electricity is sufficient to enable fully renewable supply on different scales, from self-sufficient, subnational regions to an interconnected continent. We not only show that a continental-scale system is the cheapest, but also that systems on the national scale and below are possible at cost penalties of 20% or less. Transmission is key to low cost, but it is not necessary to vastly expand the transmission system. When electricity is transmitted only to balance fluctuations, the transmission grid size is comparable to today's, albeit with expanded cross-border capacities. The largest differences across scales concern land use and thus social acceptance: in the continental system, generation capacity is concentrated on the European periphery, where the best resources are. Regional systems, in contrast, have more dispersed generation. The key trade-off is therefore not between geographic scale and cost, but between scale and the spatial distribution of required generation and transmission infrastructure.
欧洲可再生电力潜力足以实现不同规模的完全可再生电力供应,从自给自足的次国家区域到互联的大陆范围。我们不仅表明大陆规模的系统成本最低,而且还表明国家及以下规模的系统在成本增加20%或更低的情况下也是可行的。输电是低成本的关键,但没有必要大幅扩大输电系统。当输电仅用于平衡波动时,输电网规模与目前相当,尽管跨境输电能力有所增强。不同规模之间最大的差异在于土地使用,进而涉及社会接受度:在大陆系统中,发电能力集中在欧洲周边地区,那里资源最优。相比之下,区域系统的发电分布更为分散。因此,关键权衡并非地理规模与成本之间的权衡,而是规模与所需发电和输电基础设施空间分布之间的权衡。