Department of Strategy and Policy, National University of Singapore, 119245 Singapore.
Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, 113 83 Sweden.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Jul 26;119(30):e2120377119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2120377119. Epub 2022 Jul 19.
This initiative examined systematically the extent to which a large set of archival research findings generalizes across contexts. We repeated the key analyses for 29 original strategic management effects in the same context (direct reproduction) as well as in 52 novel time periods and geographies; 45% of the reproductions returned results matching the original reports together with 55% of tests in different spans of years and 40% of tests in novel geographies. Some original findings were associated with multiple new tests. Reproducibility was the best predictor of generalizability-for the findings that proved directly reproducible, 84% emerged in other available time periods and 57% emerged in other geographies. Overall, only limited empirical evidence emerged for context sensitivity. In a forecasting survey, independent scientists were able to anticipate which effects would find support in tests in new samples.
这项倡议系统地考察了大量档案研究结果在多大程度上可以推广到不同背景下。我们在相同背景下（直接复制）和 52 个新的时间区间和地理区域中对 29 个原始战略管理效应进行了重复的关键分析；在复制的结果中，有 45%与原始报告相匹配，55%的测试在不同的时间段内，40%的测试在新的地理区域。一些原始的发现与多个新的测试有关。可重复性是可推广性的最佳预测指标——对于那些被证明可以直接复制的发现，84%出现在其他可用的时间段，57%出现在其他地理区域。总的来说，只有有限的经验证据表明存在上下文敏感性。在一项预测调查中，独立科学家能够预测哪些效应将在新样本的测试中得到支持。
