CIDEF, ISHIP, ISMAT - Instituto Superior Manuel Teixeira Gomes, Portimão, Portugal.
CIPER, Faculdade de Motricidade Humana, SpertLab, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal.
Sci Med Footb. 2022 Aug;6(3):285-294. doi: 10.1080/24733938.2021.1977840. Epub 2021 Sep 28.
Relative age effect (RAE) has been found to be particularly pronounced between 13 and 15 years of age in male football. However, the extent to which the phenomenon varies within a country demands a more comprehensive approach.
To examine the effects of (north; centre-north; centre-south; south; islands), (top-ranked; middle-ranked; bottom-ranked) and (goalkeeper; defender; midfielder; forward) on the birthdate distribution (Q1: January-March; Q2: April-June; Q3: July-September; Q4: October-December) of U14 Portuguese players selected for the national inter-association tournament Lopes da Silva.
A total of 2,693 players (mean age: 14.12 ± 0.38 years), selected by the 22 regional football associations for the last seven editions of the tournament (2013-2019), was included in the sample.
Chi-square analysis showed a small-to-medium RAE in the U14 cohort compared to the general Portuguese male population ( < .01). Furthermore, the multinomial logistic regression model revealed that the probabilities of selecting Q1 players (vs. Q4) differed ( < .01) based on (increases of 76.3% in the north and 87.3% in the centre-north zone compared to the regional teams from islands) and (increase of 94.6% in top-ranked compared to the bottom-ranked teams). The did not affect the magnitude of RAE.
Our findings confirm that besides being present in U14 Portuguese male football, the magnitude of RAE is influenced by demographic factors. This study also supports the notion that coaching staffs tend to choose players based on attributes associated with chronological age, seeking to achieve short-term competitive outcomes.
在男子足球中，相对年龄效应（RAE）在 13 至 15 岁之间尤为明显。然而，这一现象在一个国家内的差异程度需要更全面的方法来研究。
研究 （北部；中北部；中南部；南部；岛屿）、（顶级排名；中游排名；下游排名）和 （守门员；后卫；中场；前锋）对入选全国联赛 Lopes da Silva 国家协会锦标赛的 14 岁葡萄牙球员的出生日期分布（Q1：1 月至 3 月；Q2：4 月至 6 月；Q3：7 月至 9 月；Q4：10 月至 12 月）的影响。
本研究共纳入了 2693 名球员（平均年龄：14.12 ± 0.38 岁），他们是由 22 个地区足球协会选拔出来的，参加了过去七届比赛（2013 年至 2019 年）。
卡方分析显示，与一般葡萄牙男性人口相比，14 岁年龄组的 RAE 较小（ < 0.01）。此外，多项逻辑回归模型显示，选择 Q1 球员（与 Q4 相比）的概率不同（ < 0.01），这取决于 （北部和中北部地区的概率分别增加了 76.3%和 87.3%，而与岛屿地区的球队相比）和 （顶级排名球队的概率增加了 94.6%，而与下游排名球队相比）。而 则没有影响 RAE 的大小。
我们的研究结果证实，除了在 14 岁的葡萄牙男足中存在 RAE 之外，其程度还受到人口统计学因素的影响。本研究还支持了这样一种观点，即教练倾向于根据与实际年龄相关的属性选择球员，以追求短期的竞争成果。
