Ha Le Thanh
National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam.
AI Soc. 2022 Jul 17:1-26. doi: 10.1007/s00146-022-01524-w.
As the first empirical study of the nonlinear effects of digital business on global value chains (GVC), we provide insight into the nonlinear effects of digital business on the global value chain (GVC) values. We employ four indicators, including the value of online selling, sales through E-commerce, and customer relationship management (CRM) usage, to capture the prevalence of digital business in the economy. By testing a sample of 25 European countries that have been analyzed using various econometric techniques over the period 2012-2019, our estimation results confirm that GVC values are a U-shaped function of digitalization. That is, an increase in digitalization pervasiveness initially induces more significant risks and uncertainties, hindering European countries from getting involved in or scale-up within the GVC. However, a rise in digitalization pervasiveness goes beyond a specific threshold, which facilitates GVC activities as more opportunities are created. Furthermore, our findings suggest that digital business contributes significantly to reducing the adverse influences of global uncertainty on the GVC values, while the marginal effects of digital business on GVC values become more pronounced in countries with the most advanced institutional structure.
作为对数字业务对全球价值链（GVC）非线性影响的第一项实证研究，我们深入探讨了数字业务对全球价值链（GVC）价值的非线性影响。我们采用四个指标，包括在线销售价值、通过电子商务的销售额以及客户关系管理（CRM）的使用情况，来衡量数字业务在经济中的普及程度。通过对2012 - 2019年期间使用各种计量经济学技术进行分析的25个欧洲国家样本进行测试，我们的估计结果证实，全球价值链（GVC）价值是数字化的U形函数。也就是说，数字化普及程度的提高最初会引发更显著的风险和不确定性，阻碍欧洲国家参与全球价值链（GVC）或在其中扩大规模。然而，当数字化普及程度超过特定阈值时，由于创造了更多机会，这将促进全球价值链（GVC）活动。此外，我们的研究结果表明，数字业务对减少全球不确定性对全球价值链（GVC）价值的不利影响有显著贡献，而在制度结构最先进的国家，数字业务对全球价值链（GVC）价值的边际效应更为明显。
