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基于 VAR 模型的环境约束下海洋经济发展与创新分析。

Analysis of Marine Economic Development and Innovation under Environment Constraint Based on the VAR Model.

机构信息

Fujian Jiangxia University, Fuzhou 350108, China.

出版信息

J Environ Public Health. 2022 Jul 13;2022:5392014. doi: 10.1155/2022/5392014. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

Building a new development pattern based on the "double-cycle" is a major strategic plan of China. Under the background of the new development pattern of the "double-cycle" and the context of environmental constraints, this paper tries to explore the impact of marine economic development on marine cultural industry and marine innovation development, the extent of the impact of marine cultural industry on marine economic growth, and the internal relationship between them under the new development pattern of double circulation. In this paper, Fujian Province is taken as the research object to construct an indicator system of the marine culture development to reflect the living standard, employment level, and spiritual and cultural levels of people in the marine area, and the external influence of the marine economy and marine culture industry is taken as the indicator variable to measure the integrated development. The internal changes are regarded as the index to assess the integration level of the two, and the evaluation theoretical model of the dynamic evolution level of the marine economy and marine cultural industry is constructed. The vector autoregression model and impulse response function are used to study the interactive correlation between the growth of the marine economy and the development of the cultural industry. The results show the following: In the long run, there is a cointegration relationship between the marine culture industry and the gross ocean product (GOP), which is a long-term balanced and stable relationship. The development level of the marine economy and the development of marine culture industry are mutually influencing and promoting.

摘要

构建以“双循环”为基础的新发展格局是中国的重大战略规划。在“双循环”新发展格局和环境约束的背景下,本文试图探讨海洋经济发展对海洋文化产业和海洋创新发展的影响、海洋文化产业对海洋经济增长的影响程度,以及它们在双循环新发展格局下的内在关系。本文以福建省为研究对象,构建海洋文化发展指标体系,反映海洋地区人民的生活水平、就业水平和精神文化水平,以外海经济和海洋文化产业的外部影响为指标变量来衡量综合发展。内部变化被视为评估两者融合水平的指标,并构建海洋经济和海洋文化产业动态演化水平的评价理论模型。利用向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数研究海洋经济增长与文化产业发展之间的互动关系。结果表明:在长期内,海洋文化产业与海洋生产总值(GOP)之间存在协整关系,这是一种长期均衡稳定的关系。海洋经济发展水平和海洋文化产业发展相互影响,相互促进。

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本文引用的文献

1
Five priorities for a sustainable ocean economy.
Nature. 2020 Dec;588(7836):30-32. doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-03303-3.
2
Integrated ocean management for a sustainable ocean economy.
Nat Ecol Evol. 2020 Nov;4(11):1451-1458. doi: 10.1038/s41559-020-1259-6. Epub 2020 Aug 17.

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