Walter Stefanie
University of Zurich Zurich.
J Common Mark Stud. 2021 May;59(3):569-588. doi: 10.1111/jcms.13107. Epub 2020 Dec 4.
Although there has been much interest in British public opinion on Brexit, much less is known about how EU-27 Europeans view the Brexit negotiations. This is surprising, because Brexit confronts the EU-27 with difficult choices. Whereas accommodating the UK carries the risk of encouraging further countriesto leave the EU, an uncompromising negotiation stance increases the economic and social costs of Brexit. Using original survey data from 39,000 respondents in all EU-27 countries collected between the start of the Brexit negotiations and December 2018, this article shows that exposure to the economic risks of Brexit makes respondents more willing to accommodate the UK, whereas a positive opinion of the EU decreases their willingness to compromise. Moreover, many Europeans face an accommodation dilemma that moderates these preferences. Overall, the EU-27 public unsentimentally supports a Brexit negotiation line that safeguards their own interests best.
尽管人们对英国公众对脱欧的看法极为关注,但对于欧盟27国的民众如何看待脱欧谈判却知之甚少。这令人惊讶,因为脱欧让欧盟27国面临艰难抉择。接纳英国存在鼓励更多国家退出欧盟的风险,而毫不妥协的谈判立场则会增加脱欧的经济和社会成本。本文利用在脱欧谈判开始至2018年12月期间收集的来自欧盟27国39000名受访者的原始调查数据表明,面对脱欧的经济风险会使受访者更愿意接纳英国,而对欧盟的积极看法则会降低他们妥协的意愿。此外,许多欧洲人面临一种调和这些偏好的接纳困境。总体而言,欧盟27国公众冷静地支持最能维护自身利益的脱欧谈判路线。