[Quantification of radiation-induced genetic risk].

Associated with technical advances of our civilization is a radiation- and chemically-induced increase in the germ cell mutation rate in man. This would result in an increase in the frequency of genetic diseases and would be detrimental to future generations. It is the duty of our generation to keep this risk as low as possible. The estimation of the radiation-induced genetic risk of human populations is based on the extrapolation of results from animal experiments. Radiation-induced mutations are stochastic events. The probability of the event depends on the dose; the degree of the damage does not. The different methods to estimate the radiation-induced genetic risk will be discussed. The accuracy of the predicted results will be evaluated by a comparison with the observed incidence of dominant mutations in offspring born to radiation exposed survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings. These methods will be used to predict the genetic damage from the fallout of the reactor accident at Chernobyl. For the exposure dose we used the upper limits of the mean effective life time equivalent dose from the fallout values in the Munich region. According to the direct method for the risk estimation we will expect for each 100 to 500 spontaneous dominant mutations one radiation-induced mutation in the first generation. With the indirect method we estimate a ratio of 100 dominant spontaneous mutations to one radiation-induced dominant mutation. The possibilities and the limitations of the different methods to estimate the genetic risk will be discussed. The discrepancy between the high safety standards for radiation protection and the low level of knowledge for the toxicological evaluation of chemical mutagens will be emphasized.