A prognostic nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes to predict the overall survival in biliary neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) patients after surgery.

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of biliary neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) patients is affected by the status of metastatic lymph nodes. The purpose of this study was to explore the prognostic value of the log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) and develop a novel nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) in biliary NENs patients.

METHODS

A total of 125 patients with histologically confirmed biliary NENs were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and further divided into training and validation cohorts. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (time-dependent AUC), and calibration plots. The net benefits and clinical utility of the nomogram were quantified and compared with those of the SEER staging system using decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). The risk stratifications of the nomogram and the SEER staging system were compared.

RESULTS

LODDS showed the highest accuracy in predicting OS for biliary NENs. The C-index (0.789 for the training cohort and 0.890 for the validation cohort) and the time-dependent AUC (> 0.7) indicated the satisfactory discriminative ability of the nomogram. The calibration plots showed a high degree of consistency. The DCA, NRI, and IDI indicated that the nomogram performed significantly better than the SEER staging system.

CONCLUSION

A novel LODDS-incorporated nomogram was developed and validated to assist clinicians in evaluating the prognosis of biliary NENs patients.