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注定而非不确定:无症状感染下的风险态度与传播行为

Rather doomed than uncertain: risk attitudes and transmissive behavior under asymptomatic infection.

作者信息

Matthies Konstantin, Toxvaerd Flavio

机构信息

Amazon Japan G.K., Tokyo, Japan.

Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Austin Robinson Building, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 9DD UK.

出版信息

Econ Theory. 2022 Jul 23:1-44. doi: 10.1007/s00199-022-01448-y.

Abstract

We analyze the relation between individuals' risk aversion and their willingness to expose themselves to infection when faced with an asymptomatic infectious disease. We show that in a high prevalence environment, increasing individuals' risk aversion increases their propensity to engage in transmissive behavior. The reason for this result is that as risk aversion increases, exposure which leads to infection with certainty becomes relatively more attractive than the uncertain payoffs from protected behavior. We provide evidence from a laboratory experiment which is consistent with our theoretical findings.

摘要

我们分析了个体的风险规避与他们在面对无症状传染病时愿意让自己暴露于感染风险之间的关系。我们发现,在高流行率环境中,个体风险规避程度的增加会提高他们从事传播性行为的倾向。这一结果的原因在于,随着风险规避程度的增加,必然导致感染的暴露相较于受保护行为带来的不确定收益变得相对更具吸引力。我们提供了一项实验室实验的证据,该证据与我们的理论发现一致。

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