Department of Economics, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA.
PLoS One. 2013;8(1):e52814. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0052814. Epub 2013 Jan 9.
We report the results of a study we conducted using a simple multiplayer online game that simulates the spread of an infectious disease through a population composed of the players. We use our virtual epidemics game to examine how people respond to epidemics. The analysis shows that people's behavior is responsive to the cost of self-protection, the reported prevalence of disease, and their experiences earlier in the epidemic. Specifically, decreasing the cost of self-protection increases the rate of safe behavior. Higher reported prevalence also raises the likelihood that individuals would engage in self-protection, where the magnitude of this effect depends on how much time has elapsed in the epidemic. Individuals' experiences in terms of how often an infection was acquired when they did not engage in self-protection are another factor that determines whether they will invest in preventive measures later on. All else being equal, individuals who were infected at a higher rate are more likely to engage in self-protective behavior compared to those with a lower rate of infection. Lastly, fixing everything else, people's willingness to engage in safe behavior waxes or wanes over time, depending on the severity of an epidemic: when prevalence is high, people are more likely to adopt self-protective measures as time goes by; when prevalence is low, a 'self-protection fatigue' effect sets in whereby individuals are less willing to engage in safe behavior over time.
我们报告了一项研究的结果,该研究使用了一个简单的多人在线游戏来模拟传染病在由玩家组成的人群中的传播。我们利用虚拟传染病游戏来研究人们对传染病的反应。分析表明,人们的行为对自我保护成本、疾病报告的流行率以及他们在传染病早期的经历做出反应。具体来说,降低自我保护成本会提高安全行为的比率。更高的报告流行率也会增加个体采取自我保护措施的可能性,而这种效果的大小取决于传染病持续的时间。个体在没有采取自我保护措施时感染的频率也是决定他们以后是否会采取预防措施的另一个因素。在其他条件相同的情况下,与感染率较低的个体相比,感染率较高的个体更有可能采取自我保护措施。最后,固定其他因素,人们参与安全行为的意愿会随着时间的推移而增减,这取决于传染病的严重程度:当流行率高时,随着时间的推移,人们更有可能采取自我保护措施;当流行率低时,会出现“自我保护疲劳”效应,即随着时间的推移,个体不太愿意采取安全行为。