Shcherbakova E M
Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117418 Moscow, Russia.
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 109028 Moscow, Russia.
Stud Russ Econ Dev. 2022;33(4):409-421. doi: 10.1134/S1075700722040098. Epub 2022 Jul 26.
The article examines the current demographic trends in Russia as compared to population changes in the world and its major regions based on data from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), Eurostat, and the UN Population Division. It is shown that in terms of a number of characteristics of population reproduction-low fertility, ageing population structure, natural population decline-Russia is quite similar to the developed countries group. However, Russia is behind many countries in reducing the mortality rate of the middle-aged and older population, especially in men, and, correspondingly, in life expectancy for all age groups, which results in a noticeable increase in natural population decline and in deformation of the sex structure of the population. The specifics of the age structure of the Russian population that have been formed by a number of demographic waves are such that changes in the number of births and in age group sizes come in waves; this trend will continue in the coming decades. The article also analyzes excess mortality in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic in comparison with similar data for the European Union (EU-27) and compares healthy life expectancy estimates for Russia, the entire world, individual countries, and different groups of countries by income.
本文基于俄罗斯联邦国家统计局（Rosstat）、欧盟统计局（Eurostat）和联合国人口司的数据，研究了俄罗斯当前的人口趋势，并与世界及其主要地区的人口变化进行了比较。研究表明，在人口再生产的一些特征方面，如低生育率、老龄化人口结构、人口自然减少，俄罗斯与发达国家群体颇为相似。然而，在降低中老年人口死亡率方面，尤其是男性，俄罗斯落后于许多国家，相应地，在所有年龄组的预期寿命方面也落后，这导致人口自然减少显著增加，以及人口性别结构失衡。由多次人口波动形成的俄罗斯人口年龄结构特点是，出生人数和年龄组规模的变化呈波浪式；这一趋势在未来几十年仍将持续。本文还分析了俄罗斯在新冠疫情期间的超额死亡率，并与欧盟（27国）的类似数据进行了比较，还按收入对俄罗斯、全世界、个别国家以及不同国家组的健康预期寿命估计值进行了比较。
