Accounting for population structure in genomic predictions of Eucalyptus globulus.

Genetic groups have been widely adopted in tree breeding to account for provenance effects within pedigree-derived relationship matrices. However, provenances or genetic groups have not yet been incorporated into single-step genomic BLUP ("HBLUP") analyses of tree populations. To quantify the impact of accounting for population structure in Eucalyptus globulus, we used HBLUP to compare breeding value predictions from models excluding base population effects and models including either fixed genetic groups or the marker-derived proxies, also known as metafounders. Full-sib families from 2 separate breeding populations were evaluated across 13 sites in the "Green Triangle" region of Australia. Gamma matrices (Γ) describing similarities among metafounders reflected the geographic distribution of populations and the origins of 2 land races were identified. Diagonal elements of Γ provided population diversity or allelic covariation estimates between 0.24 and 0.56. Genetic group solutions were strongly correlated with metafounder solutions across models and metafounder effects influenced the genetic solutions of base population parents. The accuracy, stability, dispersion, and bias of model solutions were compared using the linear regression method. Addition of genomic information increased accuracy from 0.41 to 0.47 and stability from 0.68 to 0.71, while increasing bias slightly. Dispersion was within 0.10 of the ideal value (1.0) for all models. Although inclusion of metafounders did not strongly affect accuracy or stability and had mixed effects on bias, we nevertheless recommend the incorporation of metafounders in prediction models to represent the hierarchical genetic population structure of recently domesticated populations.