2022 年 1 月期间英国奥密克戎 SARS-CoV-2 疫情的动力学。
Dynamics of a national Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic during January 2022 in England.
机构信息
School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
出版信息
Nat Commun. 2022 Aug 3;13(1):4500. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32121-6.
Rapid transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has led to record-breaking case incidence rates around the world. Since May 2020, the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study tracked the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England through RT-PCR of self-administered throat and nose swabs from randomly-selected participants aged 5 years and over. In January 2022, we found an overall weighted prevalence of 4.41% (n = 102,174), three-fold higher than in November to December 2021; we sequenced 2,374 (99.2%) Omicron infections (19 BA.2), and only 19 (0.79%) Delta, with a growth rate advantage for BA.2 compared to BA.1 or BA.1.1. Prevalence was decreasing overall (reproduction number R = 0.95, 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.93, 0.97), but increasing in children aged 5 to 17 years (R = 1.13, 95% CrI, 1.09, 1.18). In England during January 2022, we observed unprecedented levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially among children, driven by almost complete replacement of Delta by Omicron.
奥密克戎变异株的快速传播导致了全球创纪录的病例发病率。自 2020 年 5 月以来，实时社区传播评估-1（REACT-1）研究通过对随机选择的 5 岁及以上参与者自行采集的咽喉和鼻腔拭子进行 RT-PCR，追踪了 SARS-CoV-2 在英国的传播情况。2022 年 1 月，我们发现总体加权患病率为 4.41%（n=102174），是 2021 年 11 月至 12 月的三倍；我们对 2374 例（99.2%）奥密克戎感染（19 例 BA.2）进行了测序，只有 19 例（0.79%）Delta，BA.2 相对于 BA.1 或 BA.1.1 具有生长优势。总体患病率呈下降趋势（繁殖数 R=0.95，95%可信区间[CrI]，0.93，0.97），但 5 至 17 岁儿童的患病率呈上升趋势（R=1.13，95% CrI，1.09，1.18）。2022 年 1 月，在英格兰，我们观察到了前所未有的 SARS-CoV-2 感染水平，尤其是在儿童中，这主要是由奥密克戎几乎完全取代了德尔塔所致。
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