Chadeau-Hyam Marc, Tang David, Eales Oliver, Bodinier Barbara, Wang Haowei, Jonnerby Jakob, Whitaker Matthew, Elliott Joshua, Haw David, Walters Caroline E, Atchison Christina, Diggle Peter J, Page Andrew J, Ashby Deborah, Barclay Wendy, Taylor Graham, Cooke Graham, Ward Helen, Darzi Ara, Donnelly Christl A, Elliott Paul
School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK.
MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK.
Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2022 Oct;21:100462. doi: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100462. Epub 2022 Jul 28.
The Omicron wave of COVID-19 in England peaked in January 2022 resulting from the rapid transmission of the Omicron BA.1 variant. We investigate the spread and dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the population of England during February 2022, by region, age and main SARS-CoV-2 sub-lineage.
In the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study we obtained data from a random sample of 94,950 participants with valid throat and nose swab results by RT-PCR during round 18 (8 February to 1 March 2022).
We estimated a weighted mean SARS-CoV-2 prevalence of 2.88% (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.76-3.00), with a within-round effective reproduction number (R) overall of 0.94 (0·91-0.96). While within-round weighted prevalence fell among children (aged 5 to 17 years) and adults aged 18 to 54 years, we observed a level or increasing weighted prevalence among those aged 55 years and older with an R of 1.04 (1.00-1.09). Among 1,616 positive samples with sublineages determined, one (0.1% [0.0-0.3]) corresponded to XE BA.1/BA.2 recombinant and the remainder were Omicron: =1047, 64.8% (62.4-67.2) were BA.1; =568, 35.2% (32.8-37.6) were BA.2. We estimated an R additive advantage for BA.2 (vs BA.1) of 0.38 (0.34-0.41). The highest proportion of BA.2 among positives was found in London.
In February 2022, infection prevalence in England remained high with level or increasing rates of infection in older people and an uptick in hospitalisations. Ongoing surveillance of both survey and hospitalisations data is required.
Department of Health and Social Care, England.
2022年1月，由奥密克戎BA.1变种的快速传播导致英国新冠疫情的奥密克戎浪潮达到高峰。我们按地区、年龄和主要的严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）亚谱系，调查了2022年2月期间英国人群中SARS-CoV-2疫情的传播情况和动态。
在实时社区传播评估-1（REACT-1）研究中，我们从第18轮（2022年2月8日至3月1日）期间94950名参与者的随机样本中获取了通过逆转录聚合酶链反应（RT-PCR）检测得到的有效咽喉和鼻腔拭子结果数据。
我们估计SARS-CoV-2加权平均流行率为2.88%（95%可信区间[CrI] 2.76 - 3.00），本轮内总体有效再生数（R）为0.94（0.91 - 0.96）。虽然本轮内加权流行率在儿童（5至17岁）和18至54岁成年人中有所下降，但我们观察到55岁及以上人群的加权流行率保持稳定或上升，R为1.04（1.00 - 1.09）。在1616份确定了亚谱系的阳性样本中，1份（0.1% [0.0 - 0.3]）对应XE BA.1/BA.2重组毒株，其余均为奥密克戎毒株：=1047份，64.8%（62.4 - 67.2）为BA.1；=568份，35.2%（32.8 - 37.6）为BA.2。我们估计BA.2（相对于BA.1）的R附加优势为0.38（0.34 - 0.41）。在阳性样本中，BA.2比例最高的是在伦敦。
2022年2月，英国的感染流行率仍然很高，老年人的感染率保持稳定或上升，住院人数有所增加。需要持续监测调查数据和住院数据。
英国卫生和社会保健部。
