Feng Zhilan, Glasser John W
Purdue University, Department of Mathematics, West Lafayette IN, United States.
National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC, Atlanta GA, United States.
Rev Mat. 2019 Dec 17;27(1):123-140. doi: 10.15517/rmta.v27i1.39952.
Mathematical models of pathogen transmission in age-structured host populations, can be used to design or evaluate vaccination programs. For reliable results, their forces or hazard rates of infection (FOI) must be formulated correctly and the requisite contact rates and probabilities of infection on contact estimated from suitable observations. Elsewhere, we have described methods for calculating the probabilities of infection on contact from the contact rates and FOI. Here, we present methods for estimating the FOI from cross-sectional serological surveys or disease surveillance in populations with or without concurrent vaccination. We consider both continuous and discrete age, and present estimates of the FOI for vaccine-preventable diseases that confer temporary or permanent immunity.
年龄结构宿主群体中病原体传播的数学模型可用于设计或评估疫苗接种计划。为了获得可靠的结果，必须正确制定其感染力或感染风险率（FOI），并根据适当的观察结果估计必要的接触率和接触时的感染概率。在其他地方，我们已经描述了根据接触率和FOI计算接触时感染概率的方法。在这里，我们提出了从有或没有同时进行疫苗接种的人群的横断面血清学调查或疾病监测中估计FOI的方法。我们考虑了连续和离散年龄，并给出了可赋予临时或永久免疫力的疫苗可预防疾病的FOI估计值。
