Sarel Roee
Institute of Law and Economics, University of Hamburg, Johnsallee 35, D-20148 Hamburg, Germany.
Eur J Law Econ. 2022;54(2):155-186. doi: 10.1007/s10657-021-09720-7. Epub 2021 Dec 7.
How should we think about crime deterrence in times of pandemics? The economic analysis of crime tells us that potential offenders will compare the costs and the benefits from crime and from innocence and then choose whichever option is more profitable. We must therefore ask ourselves how this comparison is affected by the outbreak of a pandemic and the policy changes which may accompany it, such as governmental restrictions, social distancing, and responses to economic crises. Using insights from law and economics, this paper investigates how the various components in the cost-benefit analysis of crime might change during a pandemic, focusing on Covid-19 as a test case. Building on classical theoretical models, existing empirical evidence, and behavioral aspects, the analysis reveals that there are many potentially countervailing effects on crime deterrence. The paper thus highlights the need to carefully consider which aspects are applicable given the circumstances of the pandemic, as whether crime deterrence will increase or decrease should depend on the strength of the effects at play.
在疫情期间，我们应该如何看待犯罪威慑？犯罪的经济分析告诉我们，潜在犯罪者会比较犯罪与保持清白的成本和收益，然后选择更有利可图的选项。因此，我们必须问自己，这种比较是如何受到疫情爆发以及可能随之而来的政策变化影响的，比如政府限制、社交距离措施以及对经济危机的应对。本文运用法律经济学的见解，以新冠疫情作为案例研究，探讨犯罪成本效益分析中的各个组成部分在疫情期间可能如何变化。基于经典理论模型、现有实证证据和行为因素，分析表明，对犯罪威慑存在许多潜在的抵消效应。因此，本文强调需要根据疫情的具体情况仔细考虑哪些方面适用，因为犯罪威慑是增加还是减少应取决于所起作用的各种效应的强度。
