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可再生能源、部门产出和经济增长对温室气体排放的中介作用:非洲区域视角。

The mediating role of renewable energy, sectoral output and economic growth on greenhouse gas emissions: African regional perspective.

机构信息

College of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, 030024, People's Republic of China.

Research Center for Social Work and Social Governance, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang, 453007, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Nov;30(51):110779-110804. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-29959-8. Epub 2023 Oct 5.

Abstract

Global greenhouse gas emissions are increasing when they should be progressively reducing, given worldwide concerted emissions mitigation efforts and protocols. To effectively tackle emissions to foster a sustainable climate, the situation's complexity needs a sector- and region-specific approach, not a one-stop analysis. We must first understand where the emissions originate-which sectors contribute the most to them. This study employs a panel multiregional framework with advanced econometric techniques accounting for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneous slope coefficients to analyse GHG emissions (CO and CH), sectoral output, economic growth and renewable energy dynamics across African regions from 2010 to 2019. The empirical findings are as follows: First, regional impacts of the economic sectors vary substantially, reflecting technological and socioeconomic differences leading to heterogeneous environmental patterns in the short and long term. Second, the estimated EKC turning points are uniformly lower, indicating slower environmental impact growth with sectoral development in African regions. Third, trade and urbanization are critical drivers of emissions in most regions and economic sectors, with a more pervasive impact on CO emissions than CH emissions. Finally, sectoral output imposes differential indirect CO and CH emissions effects via renewable energy, with East African manufacturing exhibiting the most significant emissions-reduction impact. Disaggregated, regional, and sectoral-specific strategies are recommended for designing green development pathways policies.

摘要

全球温室气体排放本应逐步减少,但考虑到全球协同减排努力和协议,排放量仍在增加。为了有效应对排放以促进可持续气候,需要采取针对部门和地区的具体方法,而不是一刀切的分析。我们必须首先了解排放的来源——哪些部门对排放的贡献最大。本研究采用面板多区域框架和先进的计量经济学技术,考虑了横截面相关性和异质斜率系数,以分析 2010 年至 2019 年非洲地区的温室气体(CO 和 CH)排放、部门产出、经济增长和可再生能源动态。实证结果如下:首先,经济部门的区域影响差异很大,反映了技术和社会经济差异,导致短期和长期环境模式的异质性。其次,估计的 EKC 转折点均匀较低,表明随着非洲地区部门发展,环境影响增长较慢。第三,贸易和城市化是大多数地区和经济部门排放的关键驱动因素,对 CO 排放的影响比 CH 排放更普遍。最后,部门产出通过可再生能源对 CO 和 CH 排放产生差异化的间接影响,东非制造业表现出最大的减排影响。建议制定针对具体地区和部门的策略,以制定绿色发展路径政策。

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