School of Asian Languages, Zhejiang Yuexiu University of Foreign Language, Shaoxing, China.
School of Economics, Tianjin University of Commerce, Tianjin, China.
Front Public Health. 2022 Jul 22;10:923978. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.923978. eCollection 2022.
A major emphasis is the dissemination of COVID-19 across the country's many regions and provinces. Using the present COVID-19 pandemic as a guide, the researchers suggest a hybrid model architecture for analyzing and optimizing COVID-19 data during the complete country. The analysis of COVID-19's exploration and death rate uses an ARIMA model with susceptible-infectious-removed and susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) models. The logistic model's failure to forecast the number of confirmed diagnoses and the snags of the SEIR model's too many tuning parameters are both addressed by a hybrid model method. Logistic regression (LR), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), support vector regression (SVR), multilayer perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU), and long short-term memory (LSTM) are utilized for the same purpose. Root mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error are used to show these models. New COVID-19 cases, the number of quarantines, mortality rates, and the deployment of public self-protection measures to reduce the epidemic are all outlined in the study's findings. Government officials can use the findings to guide future illness prevention and control choices.
研究人员主要强调了 COVID-19 在全国多个地区和省份的传播。本研究以当前的 COVID-19 大流行作为指导,提出了一种混合模型架构,用于分析和优化全国范围内的 COVID-19 数据。采用易感-感染-清除和易感-暴露-感染-清除(SEIR)模型的 ARIMA 模型分析 COVID-19 的探索和死亡率。通过混合模型方法解决了逻辑回归(LR)、自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA)、支持向量回归(SVR)、多层感知机(MLP)、递归神经网络(RNN)、门控递归单元(GRU)和长短时记忆(LSTM)等方法在预测确诊病例数量和 SEIR 模型参数过多方面的不足。研究结果还概述了新的 COVID-19 病例、隔离人数、死亡率以及实施公共自我保护措施以减少疫情的情况。政府官员可以利用这些研究结果来指导未来的疾病预防和控制选择。