Department of Health and Environmental Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, China.
School of the Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
PLoS One. 2020 Jun 29;15(6):e0235247. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0235247. eCollection 2020.
China reported a major outbreak of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV2, from mid-January till mid-March 2020. We review the epidemic virus growth and decline curves in China using a phenomenological logistic growth model to summarize the outbreak dynamics using three parameters that characterize the epidemic's timing, rate and peak. During the initial phase, the number of virus cases doubled every 2.7 days (range 2.2-4.4 across provinces). The rate of increase in the number of reported cases peaked approximately 10 days after suppression measures were started on 23-25 January 2020. The peak in the number of reported sick cases occurred on average 18 days after the start of suppression measures. From the time of starting measures till the peak, the number of cases increased by a factor 39 in the province Hubei, and by a factor 9.5 for all of China (range: 6.2-20.4 in the other provinces). Complete suppression took up to 2 months (range: 23-57d.), during which period severe restrictions, social distancing measures, testing and isolation of cases were in place. The suppression of the disease in China has been successful, demonstrating that suppression is a viable strategy to contain SARS-CoV2.
中国报告了一种新型冠状病毒 SARS-CoV2 的重大疫情，从 2020 年 1 月中旬到 3 月中旬。我们使用现象逻辑增长模型来回顾中国疫情的病毒增长和下降曲线，用三个参数总结疫情的爆发动态，这三个参数可以描述疫情的时间、速度和高峰期。在初始阶段，病毒病例数每 2.7 天（各省范围为 2.2-4.4）翻一番。报告病例数的增长率在 2020 年 1 月 23-25 日开始抑制措施后约 10 天达到峰值。报告发病病例的高峰期平均出现在开始抑制措施后 18 天。从开始采取措施到高峰期，湖北省的病例数增加了 39 倍，全国的病例数增加了 9.5 倍（其他省份的范围为 6.2-20.4）。全面抑制疫情需要长达 2 个月（范围为 23-57 天），在此期间实施了严格的限制、社会距离措施、病例检测和隔离。中国成功抑制了疫情，证明了抑制是控制 SARS-CoV2 的可行策略。
