Liu Jiaguo, Zhao Aixiang, Kong Yudan, Wang Junjin
School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, China.
Transp Policy (Oxf). 2022 Sep;126:280-291. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.07.017. Epub 2022 Aug 2.
The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe damage to the Chinese cruise market since 2020. It is crucial for the local government to reformulate the subsidy policy to respond to the changing environment. We propose a cruise supply chain system to investigate the choice of subsidy recipients and the setting of optimal subsidy levels with a budget-constrained government during the access restriction period and post-epidemic period. We find that in both periods, as long as the subsidy achieves the optimal level, either the cruise lines, the travel agency, or the passengers as recipients of the subsidy policy can maximize the market demand and recover the cruise market after the COVID-19 outbreak. However, as the budget increases, subsidizing passengers can improve the "low price dilemma" of the Chinese cruise market. Compared with the access restriction period, the local government should adjust the subsidy level in the post-epidemic period. Interestingly, the subsidy policy does not always positively impact the international cruise line's profit in the post-epidemic period.
自2020年以来，新冠疫情的蔓延给中国邮轮市场造成了严重破坏。当地政府重新制定补贴政策以应对不断变化的环境至关重要。我们提出了一个邮轮供应链系统，以研究在准入限制期和疫情后时期，预算受限的政府对补贴接受者的选择以及最优补贴水平的设定。我们发现，在这两个时期，只要补贴达到最优水平，无论是邮轮公司、旅行社还是作为补贴政策接受者的乘客，都可以使市场需求最大化，并在新冠疫情爆发后恢复邮轮市场。然而，随着预算的增加，补贴乘客可以改善中国邮轮市场的“低价困境”。与准入限制期相比，当地政府应在疫情后时期调整补贴水平。有趣的是，补贴政策在疫情后时期并不总是对国际邮轮公司的利润产生积极影响。
